Category Archives: Election Campaigns

Trump All the Way

By Barry Rascovar

July 18, 2016 – This is a big week for Republicans – their quadrennial national convention in Cleveland. For Maryland’s conventioneers, it’s “Donald Trump All the Way.” Nary a discouraging word will be heard from them – unless they’re talking about Hillary Clinton.

Trump All the Way

Republican National Convention delegates meet in Cleveland this week.

The state’s GOP delegates’ loyalty to Trump, the party’s flamboyant and controversial presumptive nominee, was sealed when the New York real estate tycoon thrashed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the April 26 Maryland primary.

Most of the GOP convention-goers from Maryland are chosen by congressional districts. They are bound to the primary winner in that district in the opening rounds of balloting.

Trump made the math easy, though: He won all eight congressional districts handily.

He took the Maryland primary with 54 percent of the vote, scoring a high of 63 percent in the Eastern Shore-Harford County First Congressional District and a low of 46 percent in the Baltimore City-dominated Seventh C.D. and the Montgomery-Frederick counties Eighth C.D.

His lowest margin of victory, 14 percentage points, occurred in the liberal Seventh Congressional District.

Unity in Cleveland

If there are rumblings of discontent among Maryland’s GOP faithful, those dissenters are staying far away from Cleveland.

Gov. Larry Hogan, Jr., who grudgingly told the media he would not be voting for Trump (though he still hasn’t explained precisely why), has found an ideal excuse: the annual J. Millard Tawes Crab and Clam Bake in Crisfield – the can’t-miss high point of Maryland’s political summer season.

Hogan hasn’t been a big fan of building up the state GOP infrastructure, anyway. He has yet to attend a Lincoln Day fund-raiser supporting local central committees. He also skipped the last two big annual Republican fund-raisers.

That makes sense, since Hogan was elected after running an outsider campaign on Facebook through his Change Maryland organization. Hogan’s novel approach may have set a new paradigm for statewide GOP campaigns and debunked the value of relying on the local party apparatus for support and backing.

Some Maryland conventioneers remain angry at Hogan’s “no” vote on Trump and his refusal to give silent assent in Cleveland.

Hogan’s Sidestep

But he would have done so at a cost. Democrats were itching to tie Hogan to Trump and the nominee’s sometimes insensitive broadsides. Hogan safely sidestepped that problem by staying home and announcing he’s washed his hands of national politics.

While some die-hard Trump supporters say they won’t forget Hogan’s snub of their hero, they are small in number next to the horde of Democrats and independents he might alienate through a Trump endorsement.

Maryland, after all, is a heavily Democratic state. For Hogan to win a second term, he can’t afford to turn off the state’s large pool of centrist voters. They helped him win in 2014.

Hogan’s second-in-command, Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford, won’t be in Cleveland, either. He’s made it clear that Trump “is not my choice at all.” Rutherford will be joining his boss at the Tawes schmooze-fest.

Kittleman’s ‘Strong Feelings’

Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman has been the most prominent Maryland Republican to cite emphatically his disapproval of Trump’s sometimes racist comments.

Kittleman, whose father Bob was one of Howard County’s most prominent civil-rights leaders, stated that Trump does not represent his “strong feelings” on civil right and diversity. “That’s not how I was raised.”

Still, those voices of dissent won’t be heard on the Cleveland convention floor or in the convention hotel hallways.

This is Donald Trump’s moment to shine and he’ll get no argument from his staunch delegate supporters from Maryland.

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Hogan’s Trump Baggage

By Barry Rascovar

Hogan has a problem

His name is Donald Trump.

Everywhere that Hogan goes,

The Donald trails behind him.

Poor Gov. Larry Hogan, Jr. He’s tried like the dickens to separate himself from controversial Republican presidential contender Donald Trump.

He’s said how disgusted he is with national politics – an indirect slam at Trump.

He’s noted he won’t be going to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland next month, anyway.

He has said he’s no fan of Trump and that the combustible New York developer ought not be the Republican nominee.

He endorsed and campaigned for a Trump rival, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

He says he’s not part of the presidential discussion and doesn’t want to talk about Trump any more.

When pressed further by reporters, Hogan said he was “speechless.”

But, the questioner continued, would he campaign for Republican Trump in Maryland? That, Hogan said was “a stupid” question.

Hogan’s ‘Not Involved’

In exasperation, Hogan nearly mimicked a statement to reporters made by the late Gov. Marvin Mandel in denying any role in an enrichment scheme by his friends. Hogan’s version: He’s not involved and doesn’t plan to be involved in anything having to do with any aspect of Trumpian presidential politics.

None of these quasi-, semi- or circuitous denials seemed to work. Hogan’s Trump baggage keeps weighing him down.

Reporters still are badgering him. Does he support the new leader of his party? Does he agree with the almost daily conspiracy allegations and undocumented bombshells coming from Trump’s tweets?

He’s tried dodging reporters, cutting off his responses, walking away from the podium or rushing into his waiting vehicle.

He even made the claim, “I have nothing to do with Donald Trump” – as though the man about to become titular head of the GOP is an alien to Maryland’s Republican governor.

Finally, Hogan tried a more direct response: He’s not going to vote for Trump in the November election.

Clinton, Johnson or a Write-in?

Does that mean he intends to vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton or Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico governor? Or will it be a write-in presidential name?

Hogan says he’ll make up his mind when he casts his ballot.

Maryland Democrats are gleeful watching the Republican governor twist like a pretzel attempting to half-divorce himself from Trump.

Both Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz and U.S. Rep. John Delaney –potential Democratic opponents in 2018 – have tweaked Hogan for his intransigence in separating himself from Trump.

Delaney even paid for a truck to haul a billboard around the State House questioning Hogan’s silence.

Callers to right-wing talk shows indicated a mixed verdict on Hogan’s “I won’t vote for Trump” statement. Some applauded him for taking a principled stand. Others condemned him for what they consider a turncoat action.

Campaigning for Szeliga

Hogan’s position may anger many staunch conservative Republicans in the short run but over the long term the discontented are likely to stick by Hogan when he runs for a second term in two years.

Those who doubt Hogan’s loyalty to the GOP will see the governor campaigning for Republican Del. Kathy Szeliga of Baltimore County, who is running for U.S. Senate in November. Szeliga has denounced some of Trump’s comments as racist and discriminatory, yet she has not gone as far as Hogan in her separation from the presidential candidate.

Questions will keep coming Hogan’s way, though. He has yet to condemn any of Trump’s beyond-the-pale accusations or indicated whether he agrees or disagrees with what Trump alleges.

Questions also will start coming about Hogan’s position on presidential issues that impact Maryland, such as the need, or lack of a need, for more gun-control legislation in light of the slaughter in Orlando.

The next four-plus months could be quite uncomfortable for Governor Hogan as he continues to try to tiptoe around the presidential conundrum Trump is creating for Republican leaders.

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Memorial Day Musings

By Barry Rascovar

May 30, 2016—A number of thoughts while celebrating the contributions of the men and women who served or serve in our nation’s military:

Baltimore City’s elections on May 27 offered two striking lessons for politicians and state election officials.

Provisional Mistakes

Yes, there was a terrible screw-up: Over 1,100 provisional ballots were mistakenly counted before the legitimacy of voters casting the ballots could be checked.

Memorial Day Musings

City election board officials have been pilloried for this mess. Fair enough, since it is clear there had not been nearly enough education or training of election judges.

But the state election board is culpable as well.

Converting from an electronic, computer touch-screen system – where voting errors are few – to an old-fashioned paper-ballot system that is known to be error-prone – was ripe for confusion and mistakes.

Not one city election-day judge had ever worked with the state’s new paper-ballot/automated counter system before. Baltimore City had used the old lever mechanical voting machines before jumping directly to the computer touch-screens. The city never held a paper-ballot election in anyone’s lifetime.

State election officials knew this. They also knew the city historically has voting snafus.

Yet state officials failed to take extra steps to help the city election board adapt to a brand-new voting system. Nor did they dispatch personnel to assist with training or offer more supervisory help on Election Day.

Instead, the state board and its staff sat back and watched the easily-predicted train wreck occur.

The main problem – confusion over how to handle those casting provisional ballots – could have been avoided if the state board had used treated paper for provisional ballots that the counting machines automatically rejected.

This and other ideas were scotched by the state board in Annapolis.

City election officials say they have learned the hard way and will make sure this doesn’t happen again in November. Perhaps the state election board will do more, too, and start acting like a cooperative partner instead of a stern superior.

New-Age Electioneering?

The May 27 city election held a lesson for young politicians as well. Some of them counted heavily on social media connections to springboard them to victory.

DeRay Mckesson was the most prominent social media star convinced that his heavy Facebook and Twitter presence was all it took to win at the ballot box. Local media made a big deal of his entry into the mayor’s race.

He and others forgot that while millennials might run their lives with a constant eye tuned to social media, the vast majority of voters aren’t plugged in. Indeed, Mckesson’s campaign turned into an embarrassment.

Despite his national Facebook renown, Mckesson received just 3,445 votes – a mere 2.6 percent of the votes cast.

The message is clear: You have to earn voters’ support the old-fashioned way, at least for the next decade or two.

Eye of the Storm

Lucky Elijah Cummings. He gets a starring role at the Democratic National Convention.

Now the bad news: He’s chairing the convention’s Platform Committee, where the hell-hath-no-fury-like-Bernie-Sanders-scorned protests will be heard.

It could get messy, angry and even violent.

Here’s one example. Two Sanders delegates on the committee are determined to have Democrats on record as condemning Israeli violence toward the Palestinian cause. That could set off a cataclysmic response from Jewish delegates and Clinton supporters.

So congratulations to the Baltimore area’s long-serving congressman. But he’d better bring a thick skin and a heavy gavel with him to Philadelphia in July.

Edwards Still in Denial

Defeated Congresswoman Donna Edwards, who lost badly to Congressman Chris Van Hollen in the Democratic primary for United States Senate, remains bitter and angry. She’s gone public now with her sour grapes and excuses as to why she failed to advance her career.

Edwards thinks there’s a “glass ceiling” for black women like herself. That’s why Van Hollen won.

Donna Edwards

Rep. Donna Edwards

Maybe it had something to do with the lousy constituent service Edwards provided for her Washington-area constituents, her grating personality that alienated House colleagues and her failure to sell herself to voters in the Greater Baltimore region.

Maybe her loss had something to do with her meager record in Congress versus Van Hollen’s all-star record.

Elections are won on the basis of merit and executing a solid campaign plan, not proportional representation based on race and gender.

Edwards needs to stop blaming others for her deficiencies. She lost because her campaign focused almost exclusively on race and gender rather than persuading Maryland Democratic she was the best candidate.

School Board Secrecy

Baltimore City’s school board decided to hide its business from the public. So it intentionally circumvented its own rules and picked a new school superintendent in total secrecy. The board didn’t even feel it necessary to tell the public it had fired the incumbent school chief months earlier.

It was a process more suited to the old Soviet Union than the U.S. of A.

What will the board do next behind closed doors?

All sorts of public officials are wringing their hands and criticizing the school board while proclaiming nothing can be done about this outrageous display of heavy-handed secrecy.

That’s not true. There’s plenty both the governor and mayor could have done.

Gov. Larry Hogan, Jr., who appoints half the board members, could have picked up his telephone and read the riot act to school board members for acting in such a cavalier and undemocratic manner. He could have hinted that any shadowy repetition would have consequences when it comes to state funds for city schools.

Meanwhile, Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake could have picked up her telephone and shouted at school board officials, too. Then she could have demanded an end to secrecy. She could have gotten the near-certain next mayor, Sen. Cathy Pugh, to echo those sentiments and make clear more secret actions would jeopardize budget support from City Hall.

Both Hogan and Rawlings-Blake dropped the ball.

Hogan doesn’t spend time worrying about what happens in Baltimore City anyway; Rawlings-Blake has been missing in action since announcing her plans to retire.

Transparency and openness in government be damned.

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The Hogan Side-Step

By Barry Rascovar

When it comes to skipping over controversial issues that might undermine his political fortunes, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Jr. is a master of diversion. This technique has proved highly successful. He’s not about to let Donald Trump trip him up.

You might call it the Hogan Side-Step.

He used it successfully in running for governor two years ago, in dealing with a Democratic state legislature and now in avoiding a potential trap posed by Trump’s presidential success in Republican primaries.

The Hogan Side-Step

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Jr.

One would expect a Republican governor to support his party’s nominee. Hogan, though, is artfully avoiding that move. Here’s what he told reporters:

“I said I was not going to get involved, and I would not endorse any candidate and that I was going to stay focused on Maryland. And I’m not going to take any more stupid questions about Donald Trump.”

For many Marylanders, “stupid” and “Trump” are synonymous. By mixing and matching them in one sentence, Hogan gives the impression to Trump haters he’s with them.

Yet what he’s really saying is that he’s keeping a mile-length distance between his political well-being and Trump’s candidacy. He can smell the toxic odors emanating from The Donald’s campaign.

‘Not Involved’

But can Hogan sustain his “I’m not involved” posture for the next six months, even with the media and public attention riveted on the presidential race?

What will Trump followers in Maryland think of this “betrayal” of the dynamic “tell it like it is” figure they adore? After all, he won 247,000 votes in Maryland’s GOP primary. How many of them are offended by Hogan’s lack of support for the Republican presidential nominee?

The concern is that Trump backers might return Hogan’s ingratitude in kind by deserting him when the Republican governor runs for reelection in 2018.

That’s the chance Hogan is taking.

Democrats, meanwhile, have targeted Hogan’s avoidance as a weakness they can exploit. The Democratic Governors Association labeled Hogan as one of the “Silent 9” of GOP governors remaining mum on a Trump endorsement.

That will be a constant refrain in Maryland by Democrats throughout this campaign.

Danger Lurks

It won’t pressure Hogan, though, who knows there is extreme danger in supporting Trump in November. That’s what Democrats would love to see.

The governor will have none of that. He’s not about to get tied to Trump’s call to deport 13 million illegal Hispanic immigrants, Trump’s call to jail women who have abortions or Trump’s crude and mean-spirited put-downs of women and anyone who dares criticize him.

Hogan will simply sit on the sidelines pretending not to notice that the most important election in our lifetimes is taking place.

It could be a tough balancing act. What does Hogan do about attending and voting at the Republican Convention in Cleveland? Does he cast his ballot for Trump then? How does he avoid that peril?

Perhaps he will find himself too busy running the state to go to Cleveland.

Or perhaps, like the late William Donald Schaefer, Hogan will visit the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame just at the point in the convention when he’s supposed to be voting. (Mayor Schaefer famously toured the San Diego zoo rather than sit in his delegate seat at the 1984 Democratic convention.)

‘Not My Choice’

Hogan could be using Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford as a partial shield against attacks from Democrats.

Rutherford has made it clear he’s anti-Trump. “I’m not going to endorse him,” the African-American lieutenant governor said. “He’s not my choice at all” – leaving open the question as to who Rutherford plans to vote for in November.

In heavily Democratic Maryland, that’s a smart political position for Rutherford, who doesn’t have to face voters on his own as lieutenant governor. It’s Hogan who must worry about not angering Republican voters while at the same time not energizing Democrats by his tactical side-step.

Rest assured Hogan will be campaigning this fall for other Republican candidates, especially those running for Congress and House Minority Whip Kathy Szeliga, who is running for the United States Senate.

She hopes to duplicate Hogan’s surprise victory in 2014 by staying away from volatile social issues, hiding the depth of her conservative voting record and presenting herself as a friendly, smiling, decent small businesswoman who is not one of those dreaded “insiders.”

Szeliga is the real loser in Trump’s candidacy. The last thing she needs in November is a large Democratic turnout, which now seems assured, thanks to The Donald’s presence. The fear factor among Trump opponents will be a powerful incentive to get to the polls in record numbers.

The Christie Dilemma

Then there’s this possibility: What if Hogan’s best political buddy, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, ends up as Trump’s choice for vice president? What will Hogan do then? He’d be in a personal bind.

Hogan enthusiastically endorsed and then campaigned for Christie’s presidential bid, in part because Christie had given Hogan enormous emotional support when the governor took on his courageous fight against cancer. It might be excruciatingly difficult for Hogan to deny Christie if he becomes Trump’s choice for veep.

Maryland Democrats would have a field day were that to take place. It would be bad news for Hogan’s efforts to distance himself from the presidential battlefield.

Hogan needs to stay on course, avoiding incendiary social issues (like immigration, abortion rights, gay rights and gun rights) until after the 2018 election. If Trump somehow drags the governor into the presidential campaign, Hogan’s reelection chances are harmed.

He’d rather continue demonstrating his skill at performing the Hogan side-step by saying he won’t answer any more “stupid questions about Trump.”

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Post-MD Primary: Insiders and ‘The Donald’ Triumph

By Barry Rascovar

May 2, 2016 – On primary election day, Maryland Democrats sent a strong message that for them experience and proven ability in public office are what count most. Frustrated Maryland Republicans, though, opted to follow a charismatic Pied Piper with wild ideas and zero elective experience.

That’s the biggest take-away from the April 26 balloting in the Free State. Except for Donald Trump’s easy triumph in the GOP presidential primary, Maryland voters came down heavily on the side of polished politicians whom they feel they can trust to deal with society’s intensely complex problems.

Post-MD Primary: Insiders abnd 'The Donald' Triumph

The “mad as hell” euphoria sweeping parts of the country against establishment figures didn’t flood into Maryland. Pragmatic insiders got the nod over impractical outsiders.

Top of the Ticket

–In the Democratic presidential primary, Hillary Clinton walloped Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. No “feel the Bern” groundswell of support for the far-left socialist-democrat in Maryland. He lost by a whopping 30 percentage points – one of his worst drubbings outside the Deep South.

That bodes well for Clinton in Maryland this November. She will benefit from solid Democratic support in a heavily Democratic state as well as the ABT (Anyone But Trump) factor: Two out of three Americans tell pollsters they view “The Donald” unfavorably.

–In the Republican president primary, Trump trumped two weak contenders, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio. It was easy pickings in Maryland for the outspoken billionaire real estate developer. He’s popular in rural areas (where he held his only Maryland campaign events) but he is detested in the state’s population centers. Maryland won’t be on his November list of winnable states unless his advisers live in the same world of unreality as the candidate.

United States Senate

–In the Democratic race for U.S. Senate, voters overwhelmingly favored Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who blew away Rep. Donna Edwards by a far wider than expected margin. Edwards won African-American jurisdictions but not by stupendous totals. She got clobbered everywhere else, especially in the Baltimore suburbs and in the state’s largest jurisdiction, Montgomery County.

Van Hollen’s easy romp on May 26 will make it nearly impossible for the GOP nominee, state Sen. Kathy Szeliga of Baltimore County, to compete in a November election where Democratic turnout could set a record. The ABT effect could severely undercut her chances, too.

Congressional Primaries

In two suburban Washington congressional primaries, Democratic voters again opted for well-qualified and proven establishment officials.

–In Montgomery County, state Sen. Jamie Raskin defeated two Democratic outsiders, a wine-business multi-millionaire, David Trone (who tried to buy the election by spending a record $13 million), and a former local news personality, Kathleen Matthews.

Raskin isn’t flashy or charismatic. But he’s a solid constitutional law professor and an ultra-liberal who learned in Annapolis how to work effectively within the legislative system. His legal smarts could prove a decided plus in the House of Representatives.

He and his wife, Deputy Treasury Secretary Sarah Bloom Raskin, also could become one of Washington’s most prominent power couples after November, since Raskin is virtually assured of victory in the general election.

–In heavily Democratic Prince George’s County, former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown won a close congressional race against former two-time State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey. The two insiders far outdistanced the field, which included a vocal Latino-rights candidate.

Voters in Prince George’s clearly preferred the tried and true, remembering Brown’s quality service in the county as a two-term delegate rather than his weak performance as lieutenant governor and his abysmal run for governor in 2014.

Mayoral Race in Baltimore

–In Baltimore City, a stampede of candidates filed for the Democratic nomination for mayor but only two were taken seriously by voters. The non-politician outsiders, exemplified by lawyer Elizabeth Embry and multi-millionaire financial investor David Warnock, failed miserably to gain traction.

Warnock ran an uplifting campaign but he never persuaded voters he has what it takes to turn around a troubled, aging urban city. His advertising symbolism – driving through Baltimore in an old pickup truck – befuddled rather than enlightened viewers.

Embry, meanwhile, kept harping on criminal justice reforms – a misleading platform since Baltimore’s mayor plays a minor role in this area. That’s the job of the state’s attorney and the state legislature. Her smarmy last-minute advertising blitz portraying the two leading candidates as virtual criminals was a black mark in an otherwise constructive campaign.

Seven out of ten city voters supported the two most experienced insider candidates, former Mayor Sheila Dixon and state Sen. Cathy Pugh. That’s a ringing endorsement of competence in office over protesting voices from outside the government arena.

Pugh very narrowly defeated Dixon by winning over the city’s white voters and business community. Dixon ran strongest among African Americans who remembered her decades of constituent service and who deeply believe everyone deserves a second chance.

The city should benefit from Pugh’s victory, which all but officially makes her the next mayor in December, given the Democrats’ lopsided voter advantage in Baltimore. She is on friendly terms with Republican Gov. Larry Hogan and key state lawmakers and will have an open door in seeking help from Baltimore’s business and civic leaders.

On April 26, Maryland proved in most cases an island of sanity and stability in an election season marked by bizarre and hard to explain developments. The state’s voters, by and large, seem to have their feet – and their senses – planted firmly on the ground.

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MD Democrats: Will It Be Symbolism or Substance?

By Barry Rascovar

April 25, 2016—Tuesday’s primary election in Maryland has more drama and national attention than any in recent memory. Democratic voters, in particular, have an eventful choice to make in the U.S. Senate primary: Will they favor symbolism or substance?

If the election were based on achievements and legislative accomplishments, Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Montgomery County would be a landslide winner. His record is heads and shoulders above that of Rep. Donna Edwards of Prince George’s County, who has little to show for eight years in Congress.

Edwards’ campaign pitch, delivered almost exclusively to African Americans and women, is that she is a crusader for those two groups. Other voters in the state have been largely ignored.

Edwards is pitching the notion that it is more important to elect a symbolic black female than an accomplished male with solid credentials in the fight for women’s rights and equality for minorities.

Protesters vs. Pragmatisim

In many ways, it is the Hillary Clinton-Bernie Sanders divide all over again. Sanders and Edwards are idealists and protest movement leaders. They excel at sweeping denunciations of the status quo and demanding radical change to obviate social injustice.

But as far as finding practical solutions and realistic ways to solve intractable problems, Sanders and Edwards come up woefully short. They are visionaries and crusaders, not worker-bees and negotiators.

They may claim credit for the ultimate reforms but they weren’t in the room doing the hard work of finding a path forward through a thicket of political and societal obstacles.

Clinton and Van Hollen are pragmatists who recognize Rome wasn’t built in a day (legislatively speaking) and that steady progress toward Democratic social goals is the most pragmatic tactic. It’s not an exciting or emotionally riveting approach but it gets you where you want to go.

When he was in Annapolis as a state delegate and then a state senator, Van Hollen was viewed as a rising star. When he went to Congress, it wasn’t long before he became a key member of Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi’s inner circle. Why? Because he’s effective. He knows how to get things done and to do so in ways that won’t alienate colleagues or blow up compromises.

Views in Congress

Van Hollen is exceptionally well-liked by those who have worked with him; Edwards is not. Fewer than 10 percent of the Congressional Black Caucus endorsed her Senate bid, which is a telling slight. The vast majority of elected black officials in Maryland have cast their lot with Van Hollen as well.

Edwards has given residents of her congressional district the back of her hand, preferring to focus on national feminist and African American causes rather than delivering quality constituent service. She also has spent little time canvassing the entire state, especially in the Baltimore region where many voters wouldn’t recognize Edwards if she bumped into them.

One of the oddities of this Senate primary is the peculiarly myopic position of Emily’s List, which has poured nearly $2.5 million into a drive to nominate Edwards, even though Van Hollen has an equally sterling record in support of women’s rights.

It could come back to haunt supporters of women’s rights because Edwards is the Democrat that Maryland Republicans want to run against. She is viewed as vulnerable in the November election.

Edwards’ base of support is narrow, but in a Democratic primary she is hoping that vast numbers of African American women will exert enough voting power to pull her over the top.

In November, though, the African American vote isn’t nearly as great. Republicans see a legitimate chance to cast Edwards as a far left-wing radical who does not represent the views of mainstream Marylanders.

Anger Among Supporters

Emily’s List opted to divert $2.5 million of its funds from other Senate races where strong female candidates could well oust incumbent Republicans if given a big financial boost.

It was not a smart move and it angered many supporters of the group in Maryland who view the group’s endorsement and financial backing of Edwards destructive to the Democratic Party and overtly sexist.

How this primary race turns out is likely to determine the type of senator Maryland gets for the next six years (or more). Van Hollen is far closer to the image of retiring Sen. Barbara Mikulski, who speaks loudly and gruffly but knows how to work the legislative system to get what she wants for her home state. Edwards has shown no inclination she would follow Mikulski’s formula.

Van Hollen appears to have the advantage – in recent polls, in the support of elected officials, in key newspaper endorsements, in his fund-raising prowess, in the quality of his advertising and in his ground-level election operations (his team knocked on seven times more doors during the week of early voting than Team Edwards).

Turnout could prove telling, but excitement over the presidential races, two hotly contested congressional races in the Washington suburbs, an equally intense race for Baltimore mayor and the Edwards-Van Hollen contest could boost voter intensity all over the state.

Do Democrats in Maryland want a senator who is an eloquent civil rights protester or a practitioner of the practical? The outcome could weigh heavily on the direction of state politics in the years to come.

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After Iowa

By Barry Rascovar

After Iowa

Feb. 2, 2016 — ITEM: Now that Martin O’Malley is an ex-presidential candidate, he still has time to file for the Democratic mayoral primary in Baltimore.

Why not? None of the current candidates for mayor is catching fire in the polls, O’Malley loved the job when he had it, and he was a successful mayor. Even the New York Times liked his performance in Baltimore.

And he still lives in a big house in Homeland.

ITEM: Three out of four Iowa Republican caucus-goers voted for someone other than Donald Trump.

Yet you’d never have guessed that listening to the unprecedented media hype given The Donald.

ITEM: Someone ought to remind Florida Sen. Marco Rubio that finishing a third still means you lost to two other candidates.

ITEM: As for retired Hopkins neurosurgeon Ben Carson, he did worse in Iowa than the 2015 Orioles in the American League East. The Os disappointed fans by barely finishing third. Carson disappointed his supporters by finishing a distant fourth.

ITEM: Carson’s efforts gained him 17,395 votes — about half the size of an Orioles-Yankees crowd at Camden Yards.

ITEM: Is winning the Iowa Republican caucus a jinx?

Is it the bad-luck equivalent of a team pictured on the pre-season cover of Sports Illustrated to win the World Series or Super Bowl?

It sure was for Mike Huckabee (2008) and Rick Santorum (2012). Et tu, Ted Cruz?

ITEM: When the media proclaims a “record” turnout in Iowa for the caucuses, better take that with a grain of salt. The GOP turnout was under 30 percent and the Democratic total made it just over the 30 percent mark.

ITEM: If you thought O’Malley got wiped out in Iowa (not a single delegate), what about former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore? A grand total of 12 Republicans voted for him in Iowa.

ITEM: Bernie Sanders’ big day is coming!

He came so-o-o close in Iowa, but he should romp in New Hampshire, the Vermont senator’s New England neighbor. He’s leading big-time in nearly every poll over Hillary Clinton.

But then reality starts to sink in. The next two primaries are in Clinton Country — Nevada and South Carolina, states with large minority voting blocs that adore the Clintons. Those states could be momentum shifters.

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Not Picking a President

By Barry Rascovar

Feb. 1, 2016 — Here’s the good news for former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley: Iowa is not America in miniature. Neither is New Hampshire. Each state has an abysmal record for picking the next president.

Not Picking a President

Former MD Gov. Martin O’Malley campaigning

Getting humiliated in the first two primary states – which seems highly likely for O’Malley starting tonight—may not signal the demise of his 2016 quest. His carefully packaged liberal message is pegged to appeal to the broad Democratic Party base, which is not well represented in either Iowa or New Hampshire.

On the other hand, miracles can happen in these early primaries. Long-odds challengers have emerged victorious more often than not. Indeed, two times out of three, the Iowa winner is usually the underdog. It happens even more often in New Hampshire.

That’s a positive for O’Malley, though he’s so far back in the polls it is difficult to see him emerging out front.

No Bump in Recent Polls

The Des Moines Register-Bloomberg poll on Sunday gave O’Malley 3 percent of the Iowa vote. Other recent polls gave him 5 percent and 7 percent. Meanwhile, O’Malley is polling 2 percent in New Hampshire. In the next primary state, South Carolina, O’Malley also is running at 2 percent.

Even in neighboring Pennsylvania, where the ex-Maryland governor should be better known and respected by Democratic voters, he’s getting just 2 percent in a recent poll.

O’Malley can take modest comfort from a New York Times editorial endorsing Hillary Clinton for the Iowa primary caucus. In the editorial, the Time editors call him “a personable and reasonable liberal.”

Unfortunately, the rest of that sentence indicates how far he has to go to be taken seriously on the national stage. The Times editorial concludes O’Malley “seems more suited for the jobs he has already had – governor of Maryland and mayor of Baltimore – than for president.”

Translation: Martin O’Malley isn’t even close to being ready for nationwide, prime time politics.

Polls and Endorsements

Newspaper endorsements and polls can be misleading, though.

An editorial-page backing doesn’t carry the weight with voters it once did.

And polls can prove highly deceptive in a caucus state like Iowa.

Voter sentiment in a telephone poll becomes meaningless in Iowa unless the voter is determined enough to attend one of 1,681 precinct caucuses this evening that could last for hours.

In Iowa, it will be candidates with the most hard-core followers who have the best shot at pulling a surprise. Precinct-level organizing is absolutely essential, too. The Iowa event is long, drawn-out and a test on voters’ patience and commitment to a candidate.

That’s why Hillary Clinton may have a decided edge over Bernie Sanders and O’Malley. The depth of Sanders’ enthusiastic support among college-age students and disenchanted Democrats is one of the great unknowns.

GOP Surprise?

Grass-roots organizing and caucus-level attendance could be key on the Republican side, too. That’s where Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas could surprise front-runner billionaire Donald Trump.

The same holds for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, whose organizational strength and quiet determination to challenge Cruz among Iowa’s large bloc of evangelical Republicans could lead to a larger-than-expected showing.

As for retired Hopkins pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, his meteoric rise in the polls has been eclipsed by his meteoric fall. His off-point remarks in the last Republican debate in Iowa emphasized how unready he is to live in the White House. Voters in polls seem to sense that, too.

Misleading Indicators

Regardless of the outcome, losing candidates can take solace from the fact that Iowa and New Hampshire are hardly indicators of the eventual outcome.

If those two state primaries were true stepping stones to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the list of presidents by now would include Iowa and New Hampshire winners such as Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Paul Tsongas, Gary Hart, Tom Harkin and Richard Gephardt.

The media has made a BIG DEAL of these two early primary states. Inflating the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire has been great for TV ratings and created a surprise bonanza of advertising dollars.

Yet the truth is that this is deceptive reporting by the media. Television commentators are vastly overstating the role the two states play in the nominating process.

In the larger presidential election picture, Iowa and New Hampshire are minor starting points. We’ve got a long way to go.

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Emily’s Mistake?

By Barry Rascovar

Dec. 7, 2015 – What in the world was Emily’ List thinking when it threw $1 million into the Maryland Senate primary race for a candidate who could be an easy mark for Republicans next November?

Why would the women’s political empowerment group try to defeat a much stronger Democratic candidate who has an unblemished pro-choice record and strong support from elected female leaders in Maryland and women’s rights advocates?Emily's Mistake

It’s a baffling call, especially in an election season where a $1 million advertising blitz could make a huge difference in a number of pivotal general election Senate races around the country involving other Democratic, pro-choice, female candidates.

Emily’s List early on endorsed Rep. Donna Edwards of Prince George’s County for the Senate seat held by Sen. Barbara Mikulski, who is retiring after next year’s election.

Edwards is running against Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Montgomery County, who has a big lead in the most recent poll, the vast majority of endorsements from elected Democratic officials and a solid corps of female supporters, including the former national board chair of NARAL, a leading pro-choice advocacy group.

Million Dollar Blitz

Yet Emily’s List insisted not only on snubbing Van Hollen’s two decades of solid pro-choice support but then decided to become an issue in the Democratic primary race with its $1 million Edwards ad campaign.

It’s an independent expenditure committee ad campaign, which by law means Emily’s List cannot coordinate its activities with the Edwards camp. But the obvious similarities of Edwards’ campaign pitch and the Emily’s List ad is striking and raises concerns.

Even more troubling is Emily’s List’s attempt to target its ad to an African-American audience, with an obvious African-American narrator proclaiming Edwards will “work for us.”

If the same language had been used in support of a white candidate, there would be hell to pay – and rightly so.

What’s so odd about Emily’s List’s love affair with Edwards is that her victory in the April 26 Democratic primary would be a gift from heaven for Republicans.

While Edwards has a legitimate shot at winning on April 26, in the general election she might not be the favorite, even in heavily Democratic Maryland.

Wider Support

That’s not the case with Van Hollen, who enjoys far broader statewide support than Edwards.

Republicans are hoping for a repeat of Larry Hogan’s upset win in the governor’s race last year. He defeated Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, who lacked broad statewide support among Democrats, independents and elected officials.

If either of the two GOP front-runners, Del. Kathy Szeliga or Harford County Executive Barry Glassman is nominated, they could duplicate Hogan’s success if Edwards is the Senate opponent.

Both are good campaigners who want to come across as smiling, Hogan-esque figures.

Edwards, on the other hand, is a lightning rod for controversy. Her hard-edge political approach is far to the left of the Democratic center, she does not work well with her fellow politicians and she often has forgotten to tend to the services demanded by constituents.

In contrast, Van Hollen has spent two decades networking within Maryland’s political establishment. He’s popular with his colleagues and has worked relentlessly to pass meaningful legislation rather than showboat on behalf of liberal causes.

Choice Supporters

The ultimate irony is that Van Hollen and Edwards are on the same page when it comes to defending abortion rights. There’s no difference in their level of support.

That’s why Emily’s List’s $1 million worth of aid for Edwards is so puzzling.

It may not have much of an impact, though.

Far more valuable may be Van Hollen’s endorsement by a key labor union, SEIU, which redrew its prior support for Edwards in previous elections.

One SEIU official said Edwards had turned her back on the labor movement after SEIU helped get her elected in 2008.

Union Strength

SEIU brings considerable on-the-ground organizational muscle to Van Hollen’s campaign.

The labor union works hard to get out the vote for its endorsed candidates. Moreover, the core of SEIU’s 40,000 members live in areas of the state Edwards needs to win big-time: Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Prince George’s County.

That’s one reason SEIU’s endorsement of Van Hollen is so meaningful.

It’s surprising that Emily’s List didn’t look at the bigger picture, both in Maryland and nationally, before tossing $1 million into its Edwards advertising effort.

The group’s decision could turn out to be a very costly Pyrrhic victory.

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Hillary to Martin: Thank you, thank you

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 23, 2015 – If Martin O’Malley wasn’t a participant in the current presidential election cycle, Hillary Clinton would have to find a replacement figure to fill his essential role.

The same goes for Bernie Sanders.

Hillary to Martin: Thank you, thank you, thank you

Martin O’Malley (left), Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders

He and O’Malley are perfect foils for Clinton as they seek to impress Democratic voters.

Clinton badly needs the publicity that flows from a contested set of presidential primaries.

Think what it would be like if Sanders and O’Malley weren’t there: All the political talk from coast to coast would be about the Republican bloodbath among more than a dozen contenders. Clinton would be without primary foes and without key TV debate coverage.

So in spite of the critical words flowing between the ex-Maryland governor and the former secretary of state, Hillary’s unspoken message to O’Malley is: Thank you, thank you.

Helping the Frontrunner

O’Malley’s continuing presidential role is enormously helpful for the clear Democratic frontrunner. Sure, he’s only polling 3 percent nationally (Bloomberg), 5 percent in New Hampshire, 3 percent in Iowa and 1 percent in South Carolina.

Let’s face it: He’s doing poorly. He’s not impressing many people. He’s not judged to be presidential timber.

But his very presence is enough to put a glow on Hillary Clinton’s face.

The candidacies of Sanders and O’Malley gives the illusion of a serious contested election when in fact it looks more and more like a runaway verging on a coronation.

That last description – coronation – is the one Hillary Clinton wants to avoid. She needs to give the appearance of earning the right to represent Democrats rather gaining it by virtue of her husband’s presidency and the Clinton name.

U.S. voters get a bit unhinged by the notion of an American royal class. Crowning a second Clinton without a true primary contest strikes many as too regal.

Republicans would heap scorn on her if Hillary didn’t have Bernie and Martin trying to nip at her heels. They’d skewer her for believing in the divine right of Clintons.

The Debate Game

O’Malley and Sanders are most useful on the debate stage.

Their last debate performance was heavy on substance, unlike the Republican shouting and insult matches. Sanders and O’Malley scored a few points, though they failed to damage the Clinton juggernaut.

Exposing weaknesses in Clinton’s answers now rather than later is a major benefit for Hillary. Thanks to Sanders’ and O’Malley’s persistent critiques during the debates, Clinton will be fully seasoned and ready for the all-important debates next fall.

O’Malley and Sanders are serving as batting practice pitchers for Clinton and occasionally turning the debates into spring training contests. These preliminaries prep Hillary for the World Series of debates against the GOP nominee.

So while O’Malley remains 52 percentage points behind Clinton nationally, some 40 percent behind both Clinton and Sanders in New Hampshire, 52 points behind Clinton and 34 points behind Sanders in Iowa and a staggering 69 percentage points behind Clinton in South Carolina, his continuing role as a supporting character in the Democratic drama remains important.

Air Beneath His Wings

Don’t expect Clinton operatives to pressure O’Malley to drop out any time soon. He’s too useful to the Democratic frontrunner. They want to keep enough air under O’Malley’s fluffy balloon so he can remain barely aloft as a presidential candidate through the early primaries and into the spring.

Americans love competitive races. Even the fiction of a real contest seems to draw voters to the Democratic debates and keeps Hillary Clinton in the headlines almost as frequently as the Republican loudmouths.

Most public performers need a second banana. Jerry Lewis best comedy was performed with Dean Martin. Penn won’t go on stage without Teller. And Groucho needed Chico and Harpo Marx to make entertainment magic.

You could view Martin O’Malley as the Harpo Marx  of the Democratic primaries while Bernie Sanders fills the role of the more serious Chico. Either way, they’re not the star of the show. They do, though, make the star a success.

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