Tag Archives: early voting

Election Eve Conclusions in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 3, 2014 – On the eve of Maryland’s unexpectedly close gubernatorial election, some tentative conclusions can be drawn:

Pluses for Brown

Anthony Brown did quite well in attracting Democrats to the polls during early voting.

Nearly one-third of all ballots cast came from three heavily Democratic jurisdictions – Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County. Each showed a substantial jump in turnout from the June primary.

Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown-May 7 debate

Anthony Brown

Overall, 102,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans. Brown should start with a big lead on Election Day.

Another good sign for Brown: The state’s heaviest voting polling place last week was in Randallstown, the heart of Baltimore County’s growing black community.

More good news for the Democrat: Brown’s running mate, Ken Ulman, did exceedingly well in drawing Democrats to the polls early in Howard County with a 13 percent turnout (the statewide average was 8.3 percent).

Hogan’s Shore Support

Republican Larry Hogan can take comfort in the hefty early voting on the Eastern Shore. That Congressional District cast more votes last week than anywhere else.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Yet Brown must be pleased by the turnout in three of his key Congressional Districts that contain most of the state’s African American population – the 4th (Prince George’s County and Anne Arundel County), the 5th (Prince George’s and Southern Maryland) and the 7th (black and liberal areas of Metro Baltimore).

The jurisdiction with the largest early turnout, Baltimore County, is likely to favor Hogan, but not by the kind of lopsided Brown margins expected in Prince George’s County and Baltimore City.

Brown got mixed signals in traditionally liberal Montgomery County, which had a weak early turnout. Yet this year’s early Montgomery numbers were 30 percent better than four years ago.

Early voting, still a new trend in Maryland, appears to favor Democrats.

Republicans remain leery of additional ballot days. They see it as a Democratic scheme to use the superior organizing  skill of  labor unions to convey more minority, poor and working voters to the polls during those seven extra voting days.

Celebrity Buzz

Bringing Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama to Prince George’s County seems to have generated enough buzz to generate a 9.5 percent turnout among the county’s Democratic voters.

Hogan’s celebrity politician, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, brought the GOP candidate money and media coverage with his multiple appearances. Christie, though, isn’t a big enough draw to help Hogan’s early vote numbers.

First Lady Michelle Obama’s appearance today in Baltimore could prove important for Brown — if Democrats use it to excite more African Americans about going to the polls tomorrow. Brown has been focusing like a laser on Prince George’s voting, but Baltimore remains a under-appreciated linchpin.

Meanwhile, everyone will be waiting for Tuesday’s weather forecast.

Right now, it looks like it will be a perfect fall day — sunny and warm. That’s great news for Brown, not so for Hogan. The lower the Democratic turnout, the better for the Republican given Democrats’ 2-1 registration advantage in Maryland.

Curious Endorsements

Questions posed by The Baltimore Sun about Brown’s “strikingly dishonest” campaign and his “unrepentant mendacity” (i.e., he’s a serial liar) continue to reverberate. Anyone reading the editorial must wonder how in the world the newspaper ended up endorsing such an ethically flawed candidate.

Even more curious was Del. Heather Mizeur’s op-ed column in the newspaper in which she politely excoriated Brown for snubbing her attempts to get him to run a positive campaign in which she would actively engage her supporters on his behalf.

Yet Mizeur, like The Sun, held her nose and told her backers to vote for Brown, not Hogan.

Mizeur might consider this campaign “an epic disaster,” but she’s willing to ignore Brown’s lying and deception because he is more likely to advance her progressive agenda.

Bottom Line

Turnout tomorrow still holds the key.

Brown needs large numbers in his Democratic strongholds, especially among African Americans. He’s still a slight favorite due to his built-in voter registration advantage.

Hogan is counting on a heavier than usual GOP turnout, support from independents and — most important of all — a growing number of moderate Democrats turned off by Brown’s ferocious negativity and his sterile, bubble-wrapped campaign.

Clearly, Hogan’s simplistic economic message (less taxes, less expansive government) has hit a chord with many voters. A win would mark a stunning, surprising turnaround for the state’s underdog GOP.

The election could align Maryland with the Republican trend elsewhere in the nation.

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The Difference-Maker: Early Voting

By Barry Rascovar

Oct. 22, 2014–If Anthony Brown is going to stem the unexpected surge of Larry Hogan Jr.’s gubernatorial campaign he’s got to start pulling out all the stops on Thursday.

That’s when early voting begins in Maryland for the Nov. 4 general election. Running up a big lead by getting his supporters to the polls over the next week is pivotal for Democrat Brown.

Early Voting poster

Here’s why.

In the June primary, Democratic early voters outpaced Republicans by better than 3-1.

If Brown can repeat that now, he’d start on Nov. 4 with a 71,000-vote lead.

Add in absentee ballots (based on the primary election numbers) and the Democratic lead over Republicans would exceed 80,000.

It could be the difference-maker.

Brown has generated scant excitement among Democrats.

This “enthusiasm gap” could translate into low turnout on Election Day, particularly in the Democrats’ Big Three – Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County, which contain 854,000 Democrats versus just 175,000 Republicans.

Anthony Brown

Anthony Brown

Brown can overcome that, though, with an full-court press, starting Thursday, to ensure that his campaign workers take full advantage of early voting, which ends Oct. 30. They need to contact supporters, provide rides to the polls and get others to cast absentee ballots.

Baltimore City should be ground zero for Brown.

Republicans are few and far between in Charm City (30,000 out of 325,000 registered voters). That’s why running up a lopsided early-voting total in Baltimore could put Brown in the driver’s seat.

Giving citizens the luxury of additional balloting days is still new to Maryland. It takes getting used to, especially for political organizations.

Early Turnout Drive

Brown and his allies have been preparing their get-out-the-early-vote drive for months. Groups like the state teachers union, organized labor and environmentalists are old hands at identifying supporters and making sure they cast a vote.

They will need to do a first-rate job for Brown to win.

A heavy early vote tally can offset a slim Nov. 4 turnout in the city and other Brown strongholds. That’s what happened in the primary.

Without early voting, the city’s 23 percent June turnout would have shrunk to 18 percent. Prince George’s County’s 19 percent turnout would have dropped to 14 percent. Montgomery’s 17.5 percent primary turnout would have slipped to 14.6 percent.

Brown’s Campaign

This race shouldn’t be close, not in overwhelmingly Democratic Maryland. Brown has no one to blame but himself.

He has run a terrible campaign.

  • He’s let paid consultants apply a national campaign template (go harshly negative) that is ill-suited to Maryland.
  • He’s been the “bubble boy” — cordoned off from the media and from ordinary voters.
  • Brown speaks through campaign mouthpieces who mimic the near-hysterical “Hogan is dangerous” ads.
  • He’s almost never heard speaking in his commercials.
  • He’s becoming a caricature of the “empty suit candidate” — afraid to open his mouth for fear of saying something that might cost him the election.

Yet with all these missteps, Anthony Brown could win because of Maryland voter loyalty to the Democratic Party.

Given the 2-1 dominance state Democrats have in registered voters (2,051,300 party loyalists versus 950,000 Republicans), there’s little more Hogan can do to turn the tide.

Instead, the election is in Brown’s hands.

Early Voting

If he produces a heavy early vote and a well-organized Democratic turnout Nov. 4, the lieutenant governor ought to win.

But if turnout in Brown’s core areas proves disappointing, Maryland’s race for governor could be a nail-biter.

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The Early Voting Myth

By Barry Rascovar

June 23, 2014 — We’ve had our share of recent news stories on increased early voting prior to Maryland’s June 24 primary election.

From those reports it sounds like this reform is catching on, right? Making it easier to get more people to participate in elections, right?

Early Voting

That bit of conventional wisdom is wrong. Dead wrong.

Early voting doesn’t increase turnout, despite all the hype surrounding this much-ballyhooed reform.

It may not be politically correct to say this but researchers have found early voting actually decreases overall voter turnout. Honest.

‘Unanticipated Consequences’

A detailed analysis of voting in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections by political scientists at the University of Wisconsin came to the following conclusion:

“Early voting has created negative unanticipated consequences by reducing the civic significance of elections for individuals and altering the incentives for political campaigns to invest in mobilization.”

The researchers concede, “This result is counterintuitive, and it certainly runs against the grain of conventional wisdom.” But facts are facts.

Their 2013 study, published in the American Journal of Political Science and funded by Pew Charitable Trusts, found early voting has the effect of “dissipating the energy of Election Day,”  which historically has focused “social and political activity on a single day [that is] abuzz with discussion, media coverage and last-minute contact from parties and candidates, factors that can exert a mobilizing impact on a wider group of potential voters.”

Voting

Look at early voting in Maryland since it was introduced in 2010.

In that year’s gubernatorial primary, 2.44 percent of registered citizens filled out their ballots early. Yet that didn’t help overall turnout, which was a dreadful 24 percent.

This year’s early voting in the 2014 gubernatorial primary saw a rise in participation to 4.17 percent, thanks to two extra days and 17 new sites. Yet Election Day turnout on June 24 is expected to drop well below 2010’s voter participation numbers.

Look at results from early voting in the last presidential election.

The number of early voters in Maryland’s 2012 general election jumped to 11.6 percent. Still, the overall turnout that year was 73.5 percent — the lowest percentage turnout in a presidential election since 1996.

Clearly, early voting doesn’t — as commonly believed — boost participation in the election process.

The Willis Report

The state’s elections board commissioned a study by the University of Baltimore’s Schaefer Center for Public Policy, led by noted election authority John T. Willis, a former Maryland secretary of state.

UB political science researchers examined the nationwide trend in early voting and reported earlier this year: “[T]here has been a growth in the number of individuals voting early over the past 20 years without a directly corresponding increase in voter turnout as a percentage of registered voters. . .”

In other words, early voting makes it easier for folks who usually go to the polls to do so. These individuals already are highly motivated. Early voting lets them more readily fit a trip to the polls into their daily activities.Early Voting sign

But the notion that early voting increases turnout is a canard.

What will boost participation in elections is Election Day registration.

The University of Wisconsin researchers discovered that in 2004 and 2008, states offering Election Day or same-day registration increased voting by three or four percentage points. They pointed out that earlier studies, stretching back 20 years, indicate the increase in turnout from same-day registration can be as high as seven percentage points.

‘One-Stop Shopping’

Data from those two presidential elections demonstrated to Wisconsin researchers that states can improve voter turnout by “offering one-stop shopping and allowing individuals who become interested late in the campaign to be mobilized into voting.”

Maryland will dip its toes into same-day registration waters in two years when people can legally register at early-voting sites and then cast their vote. If this works well, Election Day registration could become a legislative imperative in the Annapolis State House.

Those who still believe early voting eventually will increase voter turnout need to press for improvements in Maryland’s current system. Twenty more early voting sites are on the way in 2016 but that’s not be nearly enough, especially in large and rural counties.Voting pin

Early voting hours are out of sync with Election Day hours. This year, you couldn’t vote before going to work because the voting sites didn’t open till 10 a.m. That’s ridiculous. It discouraged workers from casting a ballot.

State leaders also need to step up financially and start subsidizing early voting in ways that encourage local governments to open more sites and actively promote and advertise the convenience of voting early.

The state’s early-voting law is now an unfunded mandate from Annapolis. That ought to change. The state should bear more of the direct costs for holding statewide elections.

No Panacea

Yes, early voting is convenient. It’s a service to those already registered to vote. It is growing in  popularity. That trend is likely to continue.

But it has not increased turnout.Voting_box

Indeed, it has lowered overall participation by as much as four percent, according to the University of Wisconsin researchers.

Other election reforms will be required to get more Americans to the polls.

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Looking back at the General Assembly

By Barry Rascovar / The Community Times / April 17, 2013

While we await this spring’s locust and stinkbug invasions, let’s be grateful for the disappearance of another pest — the Maryland General Assembly.

After deliberating for three months, state lawmakers finished their work having done little damage and possibly even some good.

Sure, the cost of gasoline jumps by four cents a gallon in July but we’re so used to seeing daily pump prices fluctuate that the extra tax bite could go largely unnoticed.

On the positive side, this tax increase paves the way for more bridge and state highway work and a new rapid rail line from Woodlawn to downtown.

The gun-control bill that passed contains the same sort of good news, bad news. It will be much tougher for budding criminals and unstable individuals to purchase a gun. Ammunition clips of more than 10 rounds will be banned along with most assault-style weapons.

Hunters won’t be impacted by the new law; anyone with a clean record can still buy an unlimited supply of firearms. But in seeking to crack down on the ability of ‘bad guys’ to buy heavy firepower weapons, the legislature restricted gun sales and put an arm of government – the State Police – in charge of determining whose applications get rejected.

New restrictions also make it costly to chat on your cell phone while driving. Delegates and senators gave police the right to fine drivers seen holding a cell phone to their ear. Only when stopped at a light or stalled in traffic will it be legal to do so.

Another bill approved by the General Assembly will make it easier to cast early ballots next year. There will be three or four new early-voting sites in Baltimore County, perhaps even one in Owings Mills. Two more days of early voting were added — for a total of eight — and these sites will be open 12 hours a day. Anything that makes voting convenient improves representative democracy. On this bill, lawmakers did us a big favor.

There’s also a chance Baltimore County will adopt the approach to school construction Baltimore City successfully advocated in the State House this year: A joint state-city funding program that permits outdated schools to be rapidly replaced over the next decade. Playing copycat would make sense for the county.

Unfortunately, lawmakers failed to reverse a misguided decision by the Maryland Court of Appeals regarding pit bulls, which it labeled “inherently dangerous.” This makes pit bull owners and even apartment operators who rent to tenants with these dogs vulnerable to liability lawsuits.

That could lead to heartbreak as pit bull owners and their children are forced to give up their animals or face eviction. It’s a situation that should have been fixed by legislators but the powerful trial lawyers won on this one — and the dog owners lost.

Barry Rascovar is a writer and communications consultant living in Reisterstown. He can be reached at brascovar@outlook.com.

Gas tax unpopular yet necessary

By Barry Rascovar / The Community Times / April 3, 2013

No one likes it, which is why Marylanders haven’t seen a gas-tax increase in over 20 years. That’s about to change.

With final passage last Friday of a transportation revenue bill, state legislators set in motion a four-cent jump in gasoline prices come July. This will be followed by increases in later years so that by 2016 we’ll be paying 13 cents to 20 cents more per gallon.”

We’ve gotten used to sudden leaps in fuel prices. Those increases, though, fattened profits for Big Oil companies and OPEC nations. At least this time the money will stay in Maryland.

The revenue raised – $4.4 billion over six years – will revive the state’s depleted transportation construction program. That means more dollars for interstate improvements, bridge repairs and the Red Line mass-transit extension from Woodlawn to Hopkins Bayview Medical Center.

This $2 billion rapid rail line will be the linchpin of Baltimore’s disorganized rapid rail system. The Red Line will give county residents on the west side – Randallstown homeowners take note – a quick, hassle-free way to travel into the city for business and pleasure.

Dundalk and Essex residents, meanwhile, will have a short drive to the Bayview rail terminus for downtown or westside commutes.

The big bonus is that this east-west transit line will tie together both the Light Rail Line and the existing Owings Mills-to-Johns Hopkins Medical Center Metro.

This means Owings Mills and Pikesville residents can commute by rail to their jobs at Social Security headquarters in Woodlawn or to the nearby Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. It means city residents can hop on the Red Line, transfer to the Light Rail Line and wind up at work in Hunt Valley.

It means much easier travel options to Orioles and Ravens games, entertainment venues and downtown dining spots.

Without the gas-tax increase, none of this is possible. Maryland politicians consistently ran away from a gas-tax vote. This is the first time in two decades there has been enough support to pay for transportation improvements.

What made the difference?

Time was running out to prove to federal officials that Maryland would put up its share of the money to build the Red Line and the Purple Line in the Washington suburbs. Without a commitment this year, both projects would have been shelved.

Legislators also weren’t about to vote to raise the gas tax in 2014, an election year. So this was Gov. Martin O’Malley’s last chance to solve the state’s worsening transportation situation before leaving office.

The price of progress is never easy to accept when it’s coming out of your own pocket. For now, this move is quite unpopular. The good news is that the benefits will become obvious in coming years.

Barry Rascovar is a writer and communications consultant living in Reisterstown. He can be reached at brascovar@outlook.com.