Child Immigration and MD — II

Sometimes an opinion article hits a nerve.

In this case, my column on Maryland Republican officials, child immigration from Central America, and what to do locally about these children, sent a number of the GOP faithful into conniptions.Contemplated immigration site in Westminster

Dan Bongino, the GOP candidate for Congress in the Montgomery County-Western Maryland district, called the column a “hate-filled, ignorant, one-sided piece. . .. so full of vitriol and emotion. . . . [it] should have never been published. There is already a movement growing, among a large group of grassroots activists, to respond.”

They did – along with many others.

Len Lazarick, who publishes MarylandReporter.com, an essential aggregator of news and commentary on Maryland politics and government, ran my column and later ran responses from Republican Congressman Andy Harris and Republican Del. Pat McDonough, among others.

MarylandReporter.com

Len also ran a lengthy defense of Republican immigration policy and a frontal attack on the Democrats’ immigration policy (and my “slanderous, outrageous” column) signed by Diana Waterman, chair of the state GOP.

Another former elected official sent me this response:

“Barry,

“This has got to be the most outrageously partisan[,] myopic, and uninformed column you have ever spewed out. I might try to respond but it would not be worth my time.

“Disgusted,

“Ellen Sauerbrey”

What follows are some of the other reactions.

From Billy Earl:

“Brilliant piece, spot on. . .”

From Jeff:

“[Y]ou were right when you said this: ‘The best way to stop this unwanted influx is to become involved in helping Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala crack down on criminal activity, to bolster health and education opportunities and to encourage business development.’

“How could anyone disagree with this? It is shameful that Mr. Bongino called for your firing for an opinion piece. I am a life-long Republican and I have never found his presence comfortable. . . .

“I do not support the Governor’s actions or those who have spoken up on this issue because I find that both sides are just reading polls and trying to get attention. I find it classless all the way around.”

From Diane:

“Personally, I think [Rascovar is] full of s**t on this issue, but I am glad you posted it, and hope you keep it online, so people can form their own judgments on the issue and on Rascovar’s opinions. . . .”

“If the column reduces Rascovar’s readership or influence, or lowers public opinion of his value, so be it–he’s entitled to say what he thinks and we are entitled to draw whatever conclusions we wish about him. My personal opinion of him has taken a major hit.”

From Sarah:

“Yeah, I know you and Len took a lot of flak for it, and maybe you did paint with a broad brush, but I appreciated your opinion piece. . . . Someone had to say it.”

From AB:

“I’m a registered Republican and I thank you for this column.  Your courage and insight are appreciated always, at least by [my] family.”

 From Margaret:

“I’m not familiar with you or your column. . . . [P]eople want something for nothing and there are politicians in this country who are spreading the rumor in [C]entral and [S]outh American countries that they can get it here. Unfortunately WE Americans are sick to death of paying for the problems of non-residents. . .  It is not the American way.”

From Pete:

“That piece is really beneath you, filled with ad hominem vitriol. You have to ask yourself why nothing has been done on Immigration reform, and why these children are causing such a ruckus. For years, the ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ between the two sides of the aisle has been that the Democrats don’t do anything substantive about halting the flood of illegals since they generally partake of Democrat social programs, and so vote Democrat. Since they’re illegal, they get paid under the table, so Republican business interests can pay them as little as they like. So far, so good. Now, kids are coming in, whom the Democrats like, but who won’t be working for Republicans anytime soon. Oops.”

From Jack:

“I appreciate you trying to be a reporter of sorts but I would get your facts straight before posting. People will appreciate your views much better.”

“I didn’t bother reading all of your article because nothing seemed factual . . .

“Keep reporting Barry but at least research. Most of what I read isn’t true.”

From Mark:

“Usually your columns are very insightful. Not today. I suppose everyone deserves a vacation once in a while.

“First and foremost, you conflate legal and illegal immigration. . . .

“Second, since when is appropriate [to] use graffiti to characterize a political party’s position? . . .

“Third, you mischaracterize the historic position of the Republican Party on immigration. . .

“Finally, is there a more eloquent articulation of pro-immigration position than in Ronald Reagan’s Farewell Address? . . .”

 Jeff’s response:

“I suggest you pull this article immediately. It is so full of lies and misinformation and fabrications, that you better hope that you don’t get sued by the GOP.

“Pull it immediately until you have factual information.  And you know I can call you out on it being a blogger myself.  It’s horse**** ”

Finally, from Jerry:

“Wow!  What do you really think about the child immigrants? And our neo-Know Nothings in the Republican Party?  Well said!!”

*     *     *     *     *

One of the goals of column-writing is to stimulate discourse and discussion.

The column I wrote focused almost exclusively on how certain state Republican officials have reacted to the recent wave of child immigration. I avoided getting into the broader immigration issue that has tied national Republicans and Democrats in knots.

The central point of the column was this:

As Americans, we have an obligation to humanely care and shelter these children until their cases are resolved. Maryland Republican officials mentioned in the column opposed the “helping hand” approach proposed by local religious and government leaders.

I found that misguided, and that’s what it wrote.

Little, if any, of the responses from Maryland Republicans have offered sensible suggestions on how to humanely care for these children locally while they await their fate.

That’s unfortunate.

Maybe the next round of missives will return to that pivotal question and give us some thoughtful answers.

######

 

Primary Differences: Women & Turnout

By Barry Rascovar

July 21, 2014 – In a primary election wrap-up message e-mailed to his supporters, former state Sen. Art Helton of Harford County listed reasons why he lost his latest effort to re-gain his seat in the General Assembly.

Art Helton

Art Helton

Poor turnout, especially among African American voters, he wrote, hurt him in his race against fellow Democrat Mary-Dulany James. (The Senate seat is now held by Republican Nancy Jacobs, who is retiring.)

The results: James, 4,705 votes (61 percent); Helton, 2,997 votes (39 percent).

Mary-Dulany James

Mary-Dulany James

The other reason Helton gave for his loss:  the dominance of female candidates in Democratic primaries.

He listed 10 female Harford Democrats who were victorious in the June 24 primary.

“[N]ot one woman lost unless challenged by another woman,” he wrote.

“The percentage of women voting in the Democratic [p]rimary was 63.4%. You can view the results and draw your own conclusions.”

Making a Difference

Women indeed are becoming a pivotal force in local and state elections in Maryland. They are more likely to go to the polls than men. Given the right candidate, it can make a difference.

Baltimore City ousted its incumbent state’s attorney and replaced him with a woman. After November, three of the four citywide elected offices in Baltimore will be held by women, all African Americans.

Also after the general election, four of the city’s six state senators will be women.

Women in the Senate

Half of Montgomery County’s eight state senators will be female, too.

As many as six new women could take seats in the Maryland Senate in January – Gail Bates of Howard County, Susan Lee and Cheryl Kagan of Montgomery County, Addie Eckardt from the Eastern Shore, Shirley Nathan-Pulliam from a joint Baltimore city-county district, and James from Harford County.

Susan Lee

Susan Lee

They aren’t neophyte politicians, either.

Combined, they have served 88 years in the General Assembly. They will enter the Senate as highly seasoned lawmakers.

Bates and Lee are concluding their third four-year terms in the House, James is finishing her fourth term. Eckardt and Nathan-Pulliam are 20-year legislative veterans. Kagan previously served two terms in the House.

Addie Eckardt

Addie Eckardt

Yet the “women are dominating Maryland politics” theme shouldn’t be oversold.

Only 11 of 47 state senators today are women. After the November election, the number may rise a tad in the Senate to 13.

Cheryl Kagan

Cheryl Kagan

Many counties have few women in elective offices.

Overall, the fair sex remains under-represented in elective positions, but not as voters.

*     *     *     *     *

Turnout in Maryland’s primary election was, as predicted, abysmal.

It proved an embarrassment to leaders in Annapolis who devised the early June 24 primary schedule.

Voting booths

Only 20.7 of the state’s nearly 3.4 million registered voters cast an early, absentee or election-day ballot: 561,030 registered Marylanders voted; 2,831,570 didn’t.

Turnout proved truly terrible in the Washington suburbs – 18 percent in Prince George’s County, despite the fact the leading Democratic candidate for governor came from P.G.

In neighboring Montgomery County, total turnout was just 16 percent, even though two of the three Democratic gubernatorial hopefuls were local residents.

Best Turnouts

Baltimore County led the list of large jurisdictions with a turnout of just under 25 percent – still a terrible showing in a representative democracy.

The best results came from small, rural counties, such as Kent County (30.6 percent) and Garrett County (26.6 percent). Voting poster The highest vote totals came from Montgomery (84,100) and Baltimore County (82,900), followed by Prince George’s (69,800), Baltimore City (54,600) and Anne Arundel County (50,500).

Democrats far out-voted Republicans in the larger jurisdictions – a hint of what will follow in November.

One-Sided Figures

In Montgomery, 68,179 Democrats voted vs. 12,516 Republicans.

In Prince George’s, 64,982 Democrats cast ballots vs. 4,167 Republicans.

Baltimore County saw 59,980 Democrats vote vs. 22,906 Republicans.

In Baltimore City, the imbalance was far worse: 51,730 Democratic voters vs. 2,894 Republicans. Voting sign Howard County, once a toss-up jurisdiction, saw 19,193 Democrats cast ballots, vs. 8,967 Republicans.

The primary vote totals were close in Harford County – 11,795 Democrats vs. 14,935 Republicans.

In Anne Arundel County, voting numbers were almost even – 24,655 Democrats and 25,806 Republicans.

That could lead to a tight race for county executive in the fall between Republican state Del. Steve Schuh and the county’s former sheriff, Democrat George Johnson.

###

Immigration Quandary

By Barry Rascovar

July 28, 2014 — Are Republicans poor spellers?

They might be, judging from the graffiti (“NO ILLEAGLES HERE”) spray painted on a former Carroll County military building. It briefly was under consideration as housing for immigrant children fleeing violence in Central America.

Contemplated immigration site in Westminster

Contemplated immigration site in Westminster

Or is it just that Republicans are narrow-minded bigots?

It seems they don’t want people entering this country unless immigrants are Anglo-Saxon Christians who believe the “G” in GOP stands for God.

Republican History

Hostility toward immigrants is in the Grand Old Party’s DNA.

The Republican Party started as a coalition of anti-slavery groups and the Know-Nothing Party (formally known in states as the American Party or the Native American Party).

The Know-Nothings’ near-hysterical hostility toward Irish-Catholics and Germans later turned into anti-Chinese venom.

Keeping “them” out of the U.S. of A. has morphed into today’s sweeping condemnation of 57,000 children from non-English-speaking, heavily Catholic nations in Central America who have crossed the border.

‘Combat Zone’

Frederick County’s arch-enemy of immigrants, Sheriff Chuck Jenkins, recently toured part of the Texas-Mexico border, declared it a “combat zone” and called for full militarization.

Sheriff Chuck Jenkins of Frederick County

Sheriff Chuck Jenkins of Frederick County

Fortress America, here we come!

“We’re being invaded by drug cartels, drug smugglers, human traffickers,” the sheriff railed.

Huh?

Unaccompanied children are crossing the border, not gun-toting thugs and narco terrorists.

And in Baltimore County. . .

You’d never know that by listening to Del. Wade Kach or Councilman Todd Huff of Baltimore County.

The two Republicans have joined the anti-immigrant mob.

They’re upset Catholic Charities wants to house 50 children from Central America at its secluded St. Vincent’s Villa that tends to children with severe emotional and behavioral problems — and which originally opened 174 years ago as an orphanage for immigrant children.

Meanwhile, Republican Baltimore County Del. Pat McDonough, who never misses a shot at outrageous publicity, is calling for the erection of tent cities along the border and immediate deportation of “them.”

Congressional Intervention

Then there’s the irrepressible Republican naysayer, Congressman Andy Harris.

He was quick to announce his bombastic opposition to Central American kids living temporarily at a former Army Reserve building in Westminster – a locale that is not in his district.

Harris, an anesthesiologist, cited among other reasons “the potential health risks to the community” — as though these kids were carrying the Bubonic Plague.

He wants the 57,000 children deported to their home country “and get back in line.”

Discrimination is alive and well in the Republican Party’s Maryland branch.

Christian Response

Catholic Charities’ proposal, thankfully, does not follow Republican Party dicta.

Instead, it follows Christian teachings that most Republicans ostensibly say they follow.

This is, as Pope Francis pointed out, a “humanitarian emergency” involving unaccompanied children in a foreign land. We must first protect and care for these children, the pope said.

Pope Francis

Pope Francis

Catholic Charities is extending the good work it does by undertaking this new mission at St. Vincent’s Villa in Timonium.

It’s not a permanent solution but rather a helping hand for 50 kids while their situations are sorted out. What’s wrong with that?

Governor’s Response

How does Maryland suffer from a local charity assisting some of the needy, regardless of their place of origin?

Gov. Martin O’Malley understands.

Gov. Martin O'Malley

Gov. Martin O’Malley

He first complained to the White House about placing kids at a Westminster facility lacking security or running water – not to mention the seething animus in Carroll County toward outsiders (especially Spanish-speaking “illeagals” who might pollute Carroll’s idyllic surroundings).

He was right to tell the White House it was a ridiculous idea.

There are far better ways to assist these kids – such as finding compatible settings near Washington, where there are large Hispanic communities (and proximity to Central American embassies) or in Baltimore City, with its own Spanish-speaking enclave and ample support services.

NIMBY Republicans

The Republican line is that this crisis is “a federal problem” created by the hated Obama administration, which should handle this matter itself.

Republican NIMBYism is alive and well: Let someone else care for these desperate kids, all 57,000 of them.

Just make sure the federal refugee camps are “not in my back yard.”

What’s confronting the United States is a major human dilemma. It won’t be solved solely by the White House. It will take a combined effort by sympathetic states, non-profit groups and the federal government.

Republicans, though, don’t want any part of extending charity to these kids.

The best way to stop this unwanted influx is to help Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala curb criminal activity, bolster health and education opportunities and encourage business development that translates into jobs.

Republicans will have none of that.

They don’t want immigrants coming to this country and they don’t want to help other countries stem the tide, either.

Their only answer is stationing armed troops on our southern border.

Baltimore Archbishop William Lori calls this problem “a test of the moral character of our nation. This is not a time for political posturing. . .”

Sadly, Republicans aren’t listening.

###

Casino-nomics: The Good, the Bad

By Barry Rascovar

July 17, 2014 — Once upon a time, casinos looked like the salvation of Atlantic City, a famed but dilapidated resort town on the Jersey shore.

Historic Atlantic City

For well over a quarter-century, New Jersey’s gamble worked.

Unfortunately, state and local politicians failed to reinvest the taxes flowing from a dozen casinos into Atlantic City. It remained a depressing, down-on-its-luck town of impoverished minorities surrounded by glitzy hotel-casinos.

Now the bubble has burst.

Out of State Competition

Pennsylvania, Delaware and New York gambling casinos have set Atlantic City on its heels.

Maryland’s initial entries — at Perryville and outside Ocean City — were too small and poorly run to create a problem for the Jersey resort.

But when David Cordish’s huge Maryland Live! Casino opened, Atlantic City took a big hit.

Maryland Live!

Maryland Live!

The growing number of casinos in the Northeastern U.S. is delivering staggering blows to the former Queen of the Atlantic Resorts.

The jobs of 7,000 Atlantic City casino workers could disappear by Labor Day — a stunning number for a community of 40,000.

One casino, the Atlantic Club (formerly the Hilton and before that the Golden Nugget), went out of business in January.

Atlantic Club

Shuttered Atlantic Club

Two more casinos are definitely shutting after August – Trump Plaza and Showboat, owned by Caesars Entertainment.

Showboat Casino closes in September

Showboat Casino closes in September

A fourth hotel-casino along the boardwalk, the spectacular and expensive ($2.4 billion) Revel high-rise, is in bankruptcy for the second time. It will be shuttered in mid-September unless a buyer surfaces.

 

Revel Hotel and Casino

Revel Hotel and Casino

More closings are possible.

Caesars Entertainment, for instance, is wallowing in a sea of debt and must increase the profitability of its three remaining Atlantic City properties.

Others, like Resorts International, can’t overcome aging buildings and lack of drawing power in the winter months.

Resorts International

Resorts International

It was bound to happen.

Atlantic City eagerly let too many casinos open their doors. Now the town is over-saturated with giant gambling hotels. A contraction was inevitable.

City and state officials  never planned for the day when competing casinos would surface in nearby states, thus shrinking Atlantic City’s gambling market. They placed all their economic bets on the gaming industry.

Now town officials are belatedly scrambling to rejuvenate Atlantic City and bring in other attractions before blight and despair set in around the hulking, abandoned gaming halls and hotels.

Success at Maryland Live!

Maryland, meanwhile, is profiting handsomely from its long-delayed entry into casino-nomics.

Cordish has shown the way, outmaneuvering racetrack owners and creating a mecca for lovers of casinos.

Maryland Live! is now the most profitable full-service gambling site on the East Coast.

In June, Maryland Live! raked in $56.5 million, $8 million more than Atlantic City’s Vegas-like casino, Borgata, situated several miles from the resort’s boardwalk.

Borgata complex

Borgata complex

Business is booming on Maryland Live!’s casino floor and restaurants. Locating the facility in one of the East Coast’s most popular shopping malls, Arundel Mills, proved a huge asset.

Yet those halcyon days are coming to an end for Cordish.

In late August, Caesar’s will open its Horseshoe Baltimore casino near Ravens Stadium.

It will cut into Maryland Live!’s gambling revenue by as much as one-third.

There’s more bad news coming: Completion of the MGM National Harbor casino overlooking the Potomac River and the Capital Beltway in late 2016.

MGM National Harbor

MGM National Harbor

This will be the most elegant and trendy gambling joint in the region, ideally situated to draw customers from Washington, D.C., Virginia, the Carolinas and Prince George’s County.

Still, Cordish’s complex — on the lower floor of a parking garage – will remain quite profitable.

That’s because Maryland capped the number of in-state casinos at six.

Moreover, the chances of Virginia joining the casino craze are highly unlikely.

Meanwhile, Maryland’s future Big Three – in Baltimore, National Harbor and Arundel Mills — will compete for gambling customers without fear of other entrants diluting the market.

Rural Casinos in Maryland

Maryland’s three smaller casinos are surviving, though at a lesser level of success.

Penn National’s poorly conceived and poorly run Perryville casino in Cecil County should be thriving given its location directly off an I-95 exit.

Hollywood Perryville

Hollywood Perryville

But Penn National threw up a bland, warehouse-like structure in an out-of-sight valley. It has failed to offer gamblers much in the way of entertainment, excitement or value.

Yet Hollywood Perryville took in $7 million in June. Not bad, but it hardly taps the site’s potential.

Harness Racing and Slots

Bill Rickman’s Ocean Downs casino and race track near Ocean City stubbornly refuses to offer table games.

Still, its 800 slot machines do exceptionally well in the summer months, taking in $4.8 million in June — an average of $200 per day per machine.

Rickman, whose main money-maker is the Delaware Park casino and race track near Wilmington, has an added advantage at Ocean Downs: He gets a slice of slots revenue from other Maryland casinos to boost racing purses and make track improvements at his Ocean Downs harness oval.

It’s a great package deal.

Western Maryland Casino

Maryland’s other small casino, at Rocky Gap Lodge near Cumberland, is still in its developmental stage.

Yet it took in $3.7 million in gambling revenue in June from 577 slot machines ($186 from each device per day) and 16 gaming tables.

Rocky Gap near Cumberland

Rocky Gap near Cumberland

With savvy management and marketing by Lakes Entertainment, Rocky Gap could evolve into a popular resort destination offering far more than gambling — a championship golf course, a comedy club, 215 hotel rooms, a convention center and a lakeside location in a state park.

Lakes Entertainment benefits from the fact it bought Rocky Gap on the cheap from the state, which was desperate to reinvigorate the picturesque lodge built with state funds.

It paid the state just $6.8 million and has poured another $25 million or so into upgrades. Gambling revenue will help make the resort much more viable.

Rocky Gap

Rocky Gap

Unlike Atlantic City, Maryland never viewed gambling as an economic development savior.

It’s a pleasant economic bonus for Maryland’s education coffers and a generator of lots of decent-paying jobs for the state.

Casinos can’t be viewed as a long-term growth industry, though. More likely, the six casinos will turn into steady generators of state tax revenue, much like the state lottery.

slots

With no back-up plan, the end of the casino boom is a calamity for Atlantic City.

In Maryland, legalized gambling at a limited number of locations has a far better chance of becoming a long-term survivor.

###

Hogan’s Public Financing

By Barry Rascovar

July 14, 2014 — Larry Hogan, Jr., the longshot Republican nominee for Maryland governor, made a smart move accepting public financing for his general election campaign.

It frees Hogan from the time-consuming and sometimes humiliating chore of brow-beating friend, supporters and strangers for donations over the next five months.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan Jr.

Public financing also lowers the cost of running a campaign.

Fund-raising isn’t cheap. Professional fund-raisers keep a sizable chunk of dollars raised for themselves, thereby creating the need for candidates to launch more rounds of solicitations.

It’s a vicious cycle Hogan has avoided. He did the same thing in the Republican primary and breezed to election.

Hogan’s Advantage

Hogan seized the high road and can blast the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown, for accepting huge sums from special interests eager to “own a piece” of the next governor — or at least “buy” access when the need arises.

That’s an overly cynical view but it’s what Hogan is likely to put forth in his campaign.

He’s become the “good government” candidate running without the need to grovel for funds from vested interests that will demand their part of the quid pro quo later.

Between the $2.6 million in public financing and the maximum $3.7 million the state Republican Party and its local affiliates can spend on his behalf, Hogan can mount an effective campaign — though Brown still will have a giant edge when it comes to buying advertising time on TV and radio.

Independent Spending

What could level the imbalance is unlimited spending by independent groups. That’s now allowed under the Supreme Court’s controversial Citizens United decision.

If some of Hogan’s well-healed developer friends or national conservative groups backed by billionaires like the Koch brothers and casino mogul Sheldon Adelson decide to advertise in Maryland for lower taxes and an end to big-spending government, Hogan could narrow Brown’s funding advantage.

It will not, though, erase the Democrats’ gigantic voter registration lead. That will be hard to overcome regardless of how much Hogan and his compatriots spend.

But at least Hogan avoids the fund-raising distraction.

Issues Focus

He can concentrate exclusively on issues he wants voters to get “mad as hell” about — the Democratic administration’s limited success creating jobs, 40-plus tax increases, the health-exchange scandal and cover-up, the continuing spending-to-revenue deficit, continuing hostility toward businesses and favoritism for Democratic special interests.

Hogan badly needed the Democratic primary to end in a bloodbath that shattered party unity. It never happened.

Anthony Brown quickly gained strong endorsements from his two opponents. He goes into the general election with the kind of enthusiasm and party unity that will be hard to beat.

Anthony Brown

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown

That’s especially true for a candidate who would be Maryland’s first black governor (technically he not African-American since his father was born in Cuba and his mother in Switzerland).

Minority communities, especially in populous Prince George’s County and Baltimore City, cast a majority of votes there. That’s the case in Charles County, too. Brown can count on near-unanimous support from those voters, who will be reminded endlessly about the imperative to elect “one of their own.”

Steep Challenge

It’s going to be an arduous climb for Hogan, to be sure. He has, though, set a moderate tone that will help him with independent voters and middle-of-the-road Democrats.

Can he win?

It’s a possibility.

But Hogan will have to be amazingly lucky and conduct a brilliantly skillful campaign even to make it close in November.

 

# # #

 

 

Politics Ahead of Budgets

By Barry Rascovar

July 7, 2014 — The $77 million in budget cuts approved last week by the Maryland Board of Public Works mark the first recognition there’s a price to be paid for placing election-year politics ahead of fiscal realities. It won’t be the last spending pullback, either. Budget balancing Maryland has a serious, ongoing imbalance between its high spending habits and its lower than expected revenue receipts. Everyone knew this was coming.

Winter’s Frigid Blow

Much of it is a result of the severe cold weather over the past winter, which devastated sectors of the economy, drove up heating and electric costs and put a severe crimp in job creation.

Yet early this year Gov. Martin O’Malley, with the support of Democratic legislators, introduced a budget for the current fiscal year that was wildly out of sync with prevailing economic conditions.

Gov. Martin O'Malley

Gov. Martin O’Malley

The larger problem, which O’Malley chose not to confront head-on, is that Maryland’s spending isn’t affordable without more rounds of tax increases — or sizable reductions in agency budgets.

The $77 million in cuts approved last week amounts to a small down payment on what is likely to come later.

Maryland’s economy remains stalled, as Comptroller Peter Franchot underlined at last week’s Board of Public Works meeting in the Annapolis State House.

Comptroller Peter Franchot

Comptroller Peter Franchot

Wage growth is near-zero. Sales tax growth is about one-fifth of what it should be in a recovery. Withholding taxes are about two-fifths of the norm for a recovery.

Making matters worse was O’Malley’s failure to use the Great Recession to assess government services and identify cost efficiencies on a grand scale.

Instead, O’Malley simply slowed state government’s rate of growth during hard times. He papered over the need to downsize, shift or reinvent the way non-essential services are delivered.

Troubling Imbalance

At the end of the 2014 General Assembly session in early April, legislative analysts predicted Maryland’s spending would exceed incoming revenue by $236 million for the fiscal year that started July 1.

Ominously, those analysts noted O’Malley’s budget anticipated a whopping 5.2 percent economic growth in this fiscal year and general fund revenue growth of 4.6 percent.

While recent national economic reports for June indicate a stronger recovery in the months ahead, it is doubtful Maryland can reach its rosy revenue projections for this fiscal year.

Expect more spending reductions this winter.

The key question is whether O’Malley confronts that issue or passes the buck to his likely successor, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.

Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown

Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown

Even before Maryland’s revenue projections turned south, legislative analysts had warned Maryland faces a growing cash shortage that could reach $404 million in the next fiscal year.

It would take an imposing 7.1 percent surge in state tax revenue to wipe out that structural imbalance — or a major retrenchment in state spending, which is highly unlikely.

Growing Cash Shortage?

Given the discouraging outlook that prompted last week’s budget cuts, next fiscal year’s  projected cash shortage of $404 million could grow by leaps and bounds.

O’Malley, though, will continue to “spin” this story in a politically positive way.

Other states — New York New Jersey, Pennsylvania and North Carolina – he notes, are in far worse shape (though we don’t have a handle on how bad the situation really is in Maryland — and won’t till September at the earliest).

O’Malley’s Concerns

The governor wants to put a shine on his Maryland legacy as he moves toward a presidential campaign.

He also wants to keep Maryland’s budget woes on the back burner until Brown is safely elected governor in November.

Republican Larry Hogan Jr. will try to convince voters “the sky is falling.” But the worst news from last winter’s deep freeze is over and the national economy is showing encouraging signs of finally springing back to life.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Larry Hogan Jr.

That is good news for Brown in the short term.

But come December and January, Governor-elect Brown could be faced with an ugly reality — a far deeper state deficit, painful and immediate spending cuts and a budget for the following fiscal year that can’t deliver on his expensive campaign promises.

Read more from Barry Rascovar at www.politicalmaryland.com

Did Gansler Lose It or Brown Win It?

 By Barry Rascovar

June 30, 2014 — Did Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown run such a flawless Rose Garden campaign that his victory in Maryland’s June 24 Democratic gubernatorial primary was inevitable?

Anthony Brown

Anthony Brown

Or did his chief rival, Attorney General Doug Gansler, lose the election with an ineffective campaign that badly missed the mark?

As is usually the case, a combination of factors from both camps contributed to the outcome. Neither candidate proved a sensation with voters.

The only spark came from the third Democrat, the ultra-liberal Heather Mizeur.

Heather Mizeur

Heather Mizeur

Her clarity and sharp focus on issues appealing to younger voters helped her top the 20 percent barrier. It was more than enough to cost Gansler any hope of catching Brown.

The lieutenant governor ran a bland, “the world is great” campaign that trumpeted Gov. Martin O’Malley’s progressive achievements while adding the tagline, “but we can do better.”

Brown’s staff effectively wrapped him in a tight cocoon, denying the media unfettered access for fear Brown might have an ” ‘Hispanish’ moment” (remember that flub by gubernatorial contender Kathleen Kennedy Townsend?).

No Stumbles

This Imperial Guard mentality might prove a detriment in the two-candidate general election race against Republican pragmatist Larry Hogan Jr.

Yet with virtually the entire Democratic Party establishment behind him, Brown had to stumble badly to lose the primary. His rock-solid support among African-American voters gave him an unprecedented advantage.

Still, there were enough discontented voters that this should have been a much closer primary. Gansler, though, tripped himself up early. He never delivered a compelling, visionary message that excited Democrats.

Doug Gansler

Doug Gansler

He turned into a “me, too” candidate, trying not to offend Mizeur supporters or Democrats who generally liked what O’Malley and Brown have done.

While Brown promised to continue O’Malley’s progressivism, and Mizeur promised a radically different tomorrow, Gansler never effectively articulated how his election would improve life for John and Joan Q. Voter.

Weak Democratic Choices

The Democratic electorate was left with three unappealing choices.

Brown proved the most palatable. It was the weakest set of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in memory.

No one has ever captured the Democratic nomination in Maryland with such a slim political resume — and radical ideas — as Mizeur’s.

No attorney general has captured the governorship in 68 years. Voters recognize that running the equivalent of a big law firm doesn’t train you for the state’s most important job.

Brown, meanwhile, could become the least qualified Maryland governor in 80 years. (The same applies to Hogan, too.)

“Where’s the Beef?”

Brown’s resume looks great but it gives credibility to the words “paper thin.” As former Vice President Walter Mondale used to say, “Where’s the beef?”

Brown has been lieutenant governor for nearly eight years, with little in the way of accomplishments. It’s a grand-sounding job that carries no official duties.

To his credit, he served a year in Iraq as a member of the Army Reserve – but as a lawyer. Not exactly the sort of achievement that comes with action photos.

Helicopter Training

After college, he served six years on active military duty as a helicopter pilot. Not the sort of training that prepares you to run state government.

with a small list of achievements, also similar to Mizeur. It’s not nearly enough legislative seasoning to impress anyone.

Brown’s lucky that his November foe, Larry Hogan Jr., is a successful land developer with zero elective experience.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Hogan’s political resume fills a single line — a minor appointed post in the Ehrlich administration finding people willing to serve on boards and commissions.

Why Brown Won

No wonder turnout was appallingly light on primary day.

Brown owes his victory mainly to O’Malley’s hard work over eight years — a solid record guiding Maryland through a terrible recession while implementing a raft of progressive reforms.

Democrats are generally satisfied, as Gansler discovered.

He could have made the primary interesting had not Mizeur split the “anti” vote. He never found his rhythm, though, and never connected with voters.

Brown ran on O’Malley’s record, his broad Democratic establishment support and those overwhelming vote totals among African Americans.

That should be more than enough to get Anthony Brown through the general election, too.

Bland is proving beautiful.

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