By Barry Rascovar
Oct. 22, 2014–If Anthony Brown is going to stem the unexpected surge of Larry Hogan Jr.’s gubernatorial campaign he’s got to start pulling out all the stops on Thursday.
That’s when early voting begins in Maryland for the Nov. 4 general election. Running up a big lead by getting his supporters to the polls over the next week is pivotal for Democrat Brown.
In the June primary, Democratic early voters outpaced Republicans by better than 3-1.
If Brown can repeat that now, he’d start on Nov. 4 with a 71,000-vote lead.
Add in absentee ballots (based on the primary election numbers) and the Democratic lead over Republicans would exceed 80,000.
It could be the difference-maker.
Brown has generated scant excitement among Democrats.
This “enthusiasm gap” could translate into low turnout on Election Day, particularly in the Democrats’ Big Three – Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County, which contain 854,000 Democrats versus just 175,000 Republicans.
Brown can overcome that, though, with an full-court press, starting Thursday, to ensure that his campaign workers take full advantage of early voting, which ends Oct. 30. They need to contact supporters, provide rides to the polls and get others to cast absentee ballots.
Baltimore City should be ground zero for Brown.
Republicans are few and far between in Charm City (30,000 out of 325,000 registered voters). That’s why running up a lopsided early-voting total in Baltimore could put Brown in the driver’s seat.
Giving citizens the luxury of additional balloting days is still new to Maryland. It takes getting used to, especially for political organizations.
Early Turnout Drive
Brown and his allies have been preparing their get-out-the-early-vote drive for months. Groups like the state teachers union, organized labor and environmentalists are old hands at identifying supporters and making sure they cast a vote.
They will need to do a first-rate job for Brown to win.
A heavy early vote tally can offset a slim Nov. 4 turnout in the city and other Brown strongholds. That’s what happened in the primary.
Without early voting, the city’s 23 percent June turnout would have shrunk to 18 percent. Prince George’s County’s 19 percent turnout would have dropped to 14 percent. Montgomery’s 17.5 percent primary turnout would have slipped to 14.6 percent.
This race shouldn’t be close, not in overwhelmingly Democratic Maryland. Brown has no one to blame but himself.
He has run a terrible campaign.
- He’s let paid consultants apply a national campaign template (go harshly negative) that is ill-suited to Maryland.
- He’s been the “bubble boy” — cordoned off from the media and from ordinary voters.
- Brown speaks through campaign mouthpieces who mimic the near-hysterical “Hogan is dangerous” ads.
- He’s almost never heard speaking in his commercials.
- He’s becoming a caricature of the “empty suit candidate” — afraid to open his mouth for fear of saying something that might cost him the election.
Yet with all these missteps, Anthony Brown could win because of Maryland voter loyalty to the Democratic Party.
Given the 2-1 dominance state Democrats have in registered voters (2,051,300 party loyalists versus 950,000 Republicans), there’s little more Hogan can do to turn the tide.
Instead, the election is in Brown’s hands.
If he produces a heavy early vote and a well-organized Democratic turnout Nov. 4, the lieutenant governor ought to win.
But if turnout in Brown’s core areas proves disappointing, Maryland’s race for governor could be a nail-biter.
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