Category Archives: Maryland Budget

Hogan Keeps It Simple — and Low-key

By Barry Rascovar

May 11, 2015 — Larry Hogan Jr. is proving to be an unusual governor for Maryland, in many ways the polar opposite of his predecessors, Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich.

Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Both Democrat O’Malley and Republican Ehrlich love publicity and making a PR splash. They craved the spotlight, issued a tidal wave of propaganda pitches and tried to dominate the daily news coverage.

Republican Hogan wants none of the above. He’s such a modest, low-key governor that he brings to mind the gubernatorial years of an equally low-key Maryland chief executive, Harry Hughes.

But there’s a difference. Hughes came to Maryland’s top office steeped in state government and political expertise. Hogan, in contrast, was a novice who had never held an elective post.

During his campaign last year, Hogan followed a disciplined KISS strategy — “keep it simple, stupid.” His themes purposely avoided divisive social issues and stuck to a few key promises — cut the state budget and then cut taxes.

Narrow Legislative Focus

Hogan followed a similar KISS approach in his first legislative session. His one and only focus: developing a slimmed-down budget that came close to wiping out Maryland’s chronic structural deficit.

The rest of his so-called “agenda” consisted of leftovers from the campaign trail — unrealistic Republican proposals that stood no chance in a heavily Democratic General Assembly.

During those 90 days in Annapolis, Hogan held few press conferences, issued few press releases and remained pretty much in the background.

By session’s end, he had won much of the budget battles, setting the stage for a similar push next year to make room for tax cuts.

He gave us a preview of his intentions last week by announcing reduced tolls on Maryland’s roads and bridges.

Bay Bridge toll cut

While this puts a giant crimp in Maryland’s efforts to replace aging bridges and improve interstate roads, the symbolism of Hogan’s toll-cutting action is what counted for the governor.

Even when dealing with the volatile protests and unrest in Baltimore, the new governor kept his participation low-key — and simple.

His actions were few but decisive — calling in the National Guard when requested, moving his office to Baltimore and delivering daily updates in which he basically introduced law-enforcement leaders to brief the media.

Hogan in Baltimore unrest

When cornered by reporters, Hogan refused to blame the mayor for what had occurred and refused to discuss details of events. He sounded a one-note response: “We are here to keep the peace.”

Compared with the frenetic, 24/7 campaign styles O’Malley and Ehrlich brought to the governor’s mansion, Hogan’s modest and even shy approach is a refreshing change.

His eternal optimism, concern and ready smile serve him well with Marylanders.

Next Big Test

That widespread popularity soon could be tested when Hogan decides what to do about two costly but critical mass-transit projects — Baltimore’s Red Line and the suburban Washington Purple Line.

He called them unaffordable during the campaign, but rejecting either project will create deep antagonisms and hostility toward the Republican governor that could dog him in the legislature for the rest of his term.

So far, Hogan has avoided these kinds of flash points, knowing that a Republican governor can ill afford alienating a large chunk of the legislature’s majority party.

How he navigates between his campaign statements and strong public sentiment for the Red and Purple Lines in three of Maryland’s largest and most politically influential jurisdictions will tell us much about Hogan’s ability to navigate his way through perilous political situations.

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Barry Rascovar’s blog is www.politicalmaryland.com. Contact him at brascovar@hotmail.com.

Taming MD’s Structural Deficit

By Barry Rascovar

April 27, 2015 —  Can Republican Gov. Larry Hogan Jr. tame Maryland’s long-standing structural budget deficit? Judging from his first stab at it, he’s more than halfway there.

But high hurdles lie ahead if he is to reach the point where the state’s ongoing revenues far exceed annual spending.

Taming MD's Structural Deficit

Hogan may grumble to appease conservative groups about the remaining $206 million structural imbalance in the budget that’s been approved for the fiscal year starting July 1.

Yet that is a sharp reduction from the deficit anticipated back in November of a $525 million shortfall under Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley.

Not Too Shabby

The General Assembly’s Department of Legislative Services (DLS) says Hogan is 68 percent of the way toward wiping out the structural imbalance — and if he continues to hold firm in denying state workers a 2 percent pay raise starting July 1, he will reach 82 percent of his goal.

Not too shabby for a Republican governor facing an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature.

Those deficit numbers will grow somewhat if Hogan decides to give Democratic lawmakers some of the $202 million they asked him to restore to various education, health and wage programs.

Still, Hogan begins preparation for his second budget in remarkably good shape.

It’s no secret that the Big Three growth items in Maryland’s budget are: 1) soaring debt service payments; 2) continually rising education aid, and 3) ever-rising health-care costs.

Too Many Bonds

Debt service alone will jump by $167 million next year. Payments on general-obligation bonds has tripled in the last three years. Hogan needs to take a hard look at ways to reduce or slow Maryland’s issuance of those bonds, including the always popular school construction allocations, which in July’s budget hits a record $380 million.

Complicating matters for the governor is Maryland’s too-slow economic recovery from the Great Recession. DLS estimates state revenues in fiscal year 2017 will grow a modest 4 percent. Yet it will take a 5.7 percent growth rate to balance spending with revenue.

More economic development is the key. That’s a long-term proposition, though.

Hogan’s aggressive “Maryland is open for business” theme won’t result in major tax gains for the state any time soon. So the governor will have to continue cutting back on state agency spending while finding areas where deeper cuts can be made without creating a harsh backlash in the legislature.

Ratcheting down the structural imbalance is Hogan’s best course. The problem is that he’s also determined to deliver on his main campaign promise — lower taxes.

Thus, balancing the state’s books isn’t enough. He’s got to go further so he can justify a tax cut that does not create a new structural deficit.

More Daunting Problems

That’s where Hogan’s problems multiply. Aid to local governments is a likely target, until you start to pull the plug on specific spending programs, like money for schools, police, fire-fighting, the poor, libraries and parks.

MD's Structural Deficit

Indeed, almost every area of state government spending affects huge numbers of Maryland citizens. Hogan must take care not to antagonize too many of them. If he does, it could jeopardize his re-election

Looking down the road, Hogan faces even more daunting budget difficulties, Indeed, DLS puts the state’s combined deficit for fiscal years 2019 and 2020 at $1.165 billion .

As bad as this sounds, it is a huge improvement over what O’Malley left behind: a combined estimated deficit for those two years of nearly $2 billion. Hogan reduced that future imbalance by 41 percent in his first budget.

Fundamental spending changes won’t be possible with Maryland’s Democratic legislature acting as a brake on Hogan’s budget-cutting tendencies. That’s why the slow-but-steady approach makes so much sense.

It won’t please Hogan’s absolutist supporters, but gradualism could prove the most practical and politically astute path to follow.

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Hogan: Strike One

By Barry Rascovar

April 14, 2015 — In his stubbornly conservative and highly politicized approach to governing Annapolis over the past week, Republican Larry Hogan Jr. took a step that may seal his fate as a one-term governor.

Hogan: Strike One

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Let’s see: In just a few days Hogan managed to alienate and infuriate state workers, public school teachers and education advocates, disability workers, supporters of medical assistance for poor pregnant women and doctors who treat Medicaid patients.

He also left a trail of non-accomplishments.

Hogan’s refusal to follow-through on a final budget accord and instead turn the issue into a political football left Democratic legislators resentful and itching to show they can play hardball, too.

For someone who entered the governor’s mansion as Mr. Nice Guy cooing bipartisanship, Hogan ended his inaugural legislative session as Mr. Tough Guy defiantly declaring great success for what was clearly a disappointing 90-day performance.

Seeds for a Pushback

His flimsy legislative agenda got shredded. He turned victory on the state budget into an easily avoidable defeat.

He sowed the seeds for a strong Democratic pushback that could make Hogan’s legislative life miserable over the next three years.

The Republican governor’s inexperience showed.

He let hard-line ideologues on his staff get their way. Democrats reacted by tying his hands in future years on making budget cuts to education. They blocked him at nearly every turn.

Teacher layoffs that are sure to follow from Hogan’s budget-cutting actions will haunt him. He has awakened a key element of the Democratic Party’s base. Teachers and public school parents in core Democratic jurisdictions will neither forgive nor forget.

Pay Cut Coming

He also made enemies of 80,000 state workers by cutting their paychecks 2 percent, starting in July.

He still has a chance to spend the money set aside by the legislature for those two groups but that would require political accommodations Hogan doesn’t seem willing to make.

The irony is that Hogan had a golden opportunity to negotiate a budget giving him much of what he wanted without enraging large voting groups.

Indeed, Democratic negotiators thought it was a done deal — until Hogan made intentionally unacceptable demands at the last moment.

The new governor showed his naiveté and lack of insight into Maryland’s complex legislative process. His hard-nosed, conservative roots were showing.

His biggest mistake: Failing to accept the divided nature of governance in Maryland. Election as governor does not entitle Republican Hogan to rule the land in an imperial, “I’m the boss” manner.

Democrats firmly control the General Assembly. They are co-rulers. They make the laws, set policy and sit in judgment on the governor’s budget.

Hogan can’t demand obeisance to his legislative wishes. He can’t insist Democrats support a decidedly Republican agenda. Yet that’s what he tried to do in the final week before Monday’s sine die adjournment.

Budget Progress

Picking up the pieces won’t be easy for the governor.

He did, though, take a major step toward truly balancing the state’s budget. Simply by trimming government spending in the next few years, identifying areas where money can be saved without significantly impacting services and keeping expenditures lower than Maryland’s growth rate, Hogan can tame the state’s structural deficit demon.

But don’t expect savings large enough to support major tax cuts. Even if that were to happen, Democrats in Annapolis would write laws that re-direct this surplus in ways more appealing to their constituents in Maryland’s big, Democratic subdivisions.

Hogan gets the next nine months to operate without legislative interference. He’ll have time to assess his next moves and prepare more carefully for the 2016 General Assembly session.

Will he seek to re-build bridges to Democratic lawmakers on issues of mutual concern?

Or will he continue to take the path of political opportunism that makes governing impossibly difficult in the Maryland State House?

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Hogan’s Choice

By Barry Rascovar

April 13, 2015 — Has Gov. Larry Hogan Jr. overplayed his hand? We’ll find out today as the Maryland General Assembly tries to wrap up its 2015 session.

Hogan's Choice on budget compromises

Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Hogan has two choices: Continue to play hardball with the Democratic legislature and risk losing all of his legislative priorities, or negotiate a settlement that gives everyone partial victory.

The first choice is really the nuclear option.

Hogan already has dug in his heels a couple of times in budget negotiations by demanding full passage of his partisan agenda that Democrats find unacceptable. Meanwhile, he says he won’t give Democrats what they want on education, Medicare and salary adjustments.

Another Ehrlich?

This “my way or the highway” approach is what punctured former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich’s balloon and led to four years of bitterness and open warfare between the political parties in Annapolis.

Does Republican Hogan, who was part of the Ehrlich administration, wish to go down that dead-end road again?

He shouldn’t misread the election results. This state remains heavily Democratic, as reflected by the make-up of the General Assembly. For a Republican governor, power-sharing is the only rational road to travel — if you want to make headway on your goals and win reelection.

Today, Hogan must decide if he wants to fight or smoke a peace pipe. It shouldn’t be a difficult call.

Shrinking Budgets

Even if he gives Democrats what they want in the budget, Hogan still has achieved his immediate objective — sharply lowering Maryland’s structural deficit and sending a clear signal that more slimmed-down budgets are coming.

Hogan is in control. But he could lose that advantage if he touches the third rail of Democratic politics in Maryland — aid to education.

A sharp cutback in state education funding for large Democratic subdivisions would be met by howls of protests by parents. It might well lead to teacher layoffs, larger class sizes and bitter anger in those subdivisions.

Why risk hostility that could sabotage cooperation with the Democratic legislature over the next three years and foreclose chances of Hogan gaining Assembly approval of his promised tax cuts?

Negotiating Tactics

So far, the governor has played the budget negotiating game well. He’s kept Democratic leaders off-balance. He’s already moved Democrats in his direction.

Indeed, he made them look foolish on their efforts to strip money from state worker and teacher pension accounts. He’s also won concessions on a handful of bills he wants passed.

If he cuts a deal at this stage and declares victory, Hogan will emerge from the session with incremental successes and few hard feelings on the Democratic side.

That’s not a bad outcome given the fact that most legislative triumphs take more than one session to achieve — and that legislative victories for a Republican governor in Maryland are always difficult.

Of course, compromise won’t please hard-edged  conservative Republicans who will accept nothing less than Democratic capitulation. Hogan would be wise to ignore them and focus on the bigger picture.

He’s got four years to construct a positive list of accomplishments. He’s made a sound start over the past 90 days. He’d be foolish to blow it at this late stage.

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Barry Rascovar’s blog is www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.

Hogan Wins Round 1

By Barry Rascovar

April 6, 2015 — Even before the final votes are taken the verdict is in: The winner of Maryland’s 2015 budget fight, by a wide margin, is Republican Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Actually, Hogan was playing with a stacked-deck.

Maryland governors almost always win these budget fights because they’re the only ones who can add money to programs and priorities; the legislature has the power to subtract, period.

Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

But remember where Hogan started: He was handed a wildly out of balance budget by outgoing Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley, who had neglected to take strong steps to stem the growing deluge of red ink on the state’s books.

Even worse, projections called for far wider deficits in future years. O’Malley wasn’t up to the task of pulling back hard on the spending reins because he was preparing to leave office and run for president as a darling of the Democratic liberal left.

So O’Malley passed the baton and dropped the budget mess he had created in Republican Hogan’s lap.

Judicious Budget-Cutting

Thanks to the work of career budget analysts and former state Sen. Bobby Neall, Hogan whipped up a budget-balancing plan in about six weeks. It was a tough but judiciously pared-down financial blueprint that went nearly all the way toward eliminating Maryland’s chronic and widening structural gap between revenues and spending.

Hogan also called for long-term steps to ratchet down future spending growth in costly education and health programs.

Democratic legislators didn’t bite on that last Hogan proposal. Yet there is nothing they can do to stop the governor from shrinking budget increases for state and local aid programs in each year of his administration.

The result is a half-loaf victory for Hogan, which is impressive for a Republican in a heavily Democratic state. If he persists over the next three years, he’ll almost certainly pick up the other half of the loaf — and more.Government Spending

Hogan came into office promising to squeeze excesses from the state budget so he can lower taxes.

He’s started down the first path with considerable success. The tax-cut pledge will be infinitely harder to fulfill, as Democrats have shown in this legislative session.

In office, Hogan has proved to be a realist. He recognized that without a truly balanced budget that slowed spending, there is no hope of gaining meaningful tax reductions.

He’ll have to keep shaving Maryland’s expenditures — and especially the state’s overly ambitious and costly capital spending program. Ever-rising health and education costs remain enormous challenges, too.

Power-Sharing

Still, the direction of future Hogan budgets is now transparent to both conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats.

To the relief of Democratic legislators, the new governor isn’t a scorched-earth program cutter. He understands the importance of the social safety net, of education advancements and offering improved health care options.

He also understands the dynamics of Annapolis.

Hogan knows he must share power with the heavily Democratic legislature. He must find common ground and avoid the mistake of the last Republican governor, Bob Ehrlich, who proved too partisan and confrontational.

So far, Hogan is succeeding.

Fiscal Turnaround

He’s won this year’s budget battle, regardless of the final negotiations over legislative demands for restoration of funds for public schools and health care.

The new governor has turned around Maryland’s bleak fiscal forecasts in a matter of months, not years.

Once legislative adjournment comes on April 13, Hogan will have the rest of  the year to implement spending hold-down ideas, analyze where downsizing makes sense, educate lawmakers on sensible ways to shrink the cost of state government and start eliminating excessive and harmful business regulations.

Not bad for a guy given almost no chance of winning the governorship a year ago — or of working constructively and peacefully with legislative leaders of the opposite party.

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Betraying State Workers

By Barry Rascovar

March 23, 2015 — Once again, the House of Delegate took the easy way out of its budget bind — and in the process stuck it to future state workers, teachers and taxpayers.

The Senate is on a glide path that follows that same flawed approach.

Instead of facing up to its fiduciary pension obligations, Annapolis delegates opted to play games, placing at risk the safety of state retirement programs.

Budget balancing

In the process, the delegates are leaving the next generation of taxpayers a monster-sized unpaid pension bill totaling in the billions.

If Maryland loses its prestigious triple-A bond rating, you’ll know who to blame.

Thanks to the intellectually dishonest proposal by the Department of Legislative Services, the delegates found a way to save $75 million this year to pay for K-12 education and a salary increase for state employees — if the governor goes along with those suggestions.

How It Started

Back in 2011, the state agreed to supplement its annual pension contribution by $300 million a year. This was the quid pro quo for forcing state employees and teachers to contribute more out of their own paychecks to the pension program.

But lawmakers reneged on the bargain, eventually cutting their supplemental payments to $150 million a year — or to zero when times got tough.

Now the House wants to reduce the state’s supplemental payment to just $75 million each year — a far cry from the original $300 million commitment. Meanwhile, state employees and teachers get no relief in their enlarged pension payments.

A major part of the rationale for this irresponsible move by lawmakers is the fast-rising value of the retirement agency’s stock portfolio. Last June 30, the state pension program topped $45.4 billion — a rise of $5.2 billion in just one year.

Its investment return for the fiscal year was a strong 14.4 percent. Fund managers have exceeded their target of 7.7% growth in four of the past five years.

Roller Coaster Ride

Sounds wonderful, doesn’t it?

It certainly entranced the legislature’s budget analysts, who cited the stock market rise as a key factor in recommending that the state slash its supplement payments by 75 percent.

But a funny thing is happening on Wall Street.

In the first 75 days of 2015, stocks ran out of gas. The long rally stalled. Prices are about where they were on Jan. 1.

If Wall Street’s prices fail to rise, or even fall, for the rest of this year, Maryland’s pension managers won’t come anywhere near their 7.7 percent growth target.

The retirement agency’s unfunded liabilities could jump substantially — and the heat will be on state legislators and the governor next year to make up the difference.

Inevitable Downturn 

That’s why the legislature’s quest for immediate gratification is so misguided. This is not the time to monkey around with reduced pension contributions.

When the bulls rule Wall Street, Maryland politicians start thinking they can cut back on the state’s pension appropriations. But that ignores the inevitability of the economic roller coaster. Prosperity only lasts so long.

If lawmakers don’t prepare for the lean years they will put Maryland’s pension program — already nearly $20 billion in the hole — in an even worse bind.

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Reneging on a Promise – Again

By Barry Rascovar

March 2, 2015 — The legislature’s fiscal leaders, in a truly bizarre move, are considering reneging — once again — on a commitment to state workers and the public by pulling the plug on supplemental state contributions to Maryland’s severely underfunded pension program.

It would save $71 million this year, $179 million next year and $233 million the third year. But, over a 25-year span this action would cost taxpayers a staggering $2.5 billion.

This suggestion from the legislature’s own analysts didn’t come out of the blue. The Department of Legislative Services was told by Democratic leaders in the legislature to find mounds of money that could be cut from the budget for later redistribution to their priorities — education and health care.

‘Deja Vu’

The result is an incredible prostitution of DLS’ fiscal stewardship. It is as though these analysts and legislative leaders learned nothing from the pension debacle of the past decade.

If approved, this proposal would be, as Yogi Berra once said, “Deja vu all over again.”

Solving a short-term budget problem would seriously threaten the state’s long-term fiscal viability — and its triple-AA bond rating.

Legislators would be gambling that a booming stock market continues over the next decade without let-up. This would easily erase the need for supplemental pension payments by the state to help close a whopping $19 billion unfunded liability.

But what if economic good times fade? What if — as is almost inevitable — the stock market suffers setbacks during that time?

Irresponsible Plan

Unfunded liabilities in the state worker and teacher pension accounts would soar, just as they did during the recent Great Recession.

It is a foolish and fiscally irresponsible proposal that never should have been presented to the legislature. It could make a bad situation worse and set off alarm bells at bond-rating agencies.

Interestingly, the Hogan administration considered this proposal and rejected it — even though it would have helped close a $1 billion budget gap.

Budget Secretary David Brinkley

Budget Secretary David Brinkley

David Brinkley, Hogan’s budget chief, said the decision was made to honor the state’s commitment to its employees.

In 2011, lawmakers approved reforms that raised employee payments to the pension system, reduced benefits for new workers and committed the state to increasing its annual payments.

Reneging on that agreement would be a terribly crass and unwise step, a slap in the face to state workers and public school teachers. They still must ante up additional paycheck dollars to fortify the pension system.

Moral Obligation

Why should state legislators walk away from their end of the bargain?

“What duty do we have to employees,” said Del. Tony McConkey of Anne Arundel County. “What moral obligation do we have”?

Del. Tony McConkey

Del. Tony McConkey

“A promise made is a promise kept,” noted Del. Mike McKay of Allegheny County.

Indeed.

Short-sighted illogic got Maryland into deep trouble the first time. Will lawmakers be foolish enough to go down that road again?

Glendening Started It

Back in the early 2000s, Gov. Parris Glendening intentionally underfunded state payments to the pension program so he could increase education aid. The legislature not only went along but came up with a flawed accounting gimmick to justify lower payments.

Known as the “corridor funding method,” this scam lets the state cut its pension allocations when times are good and stock market returns are strong.

But when the recession hit in the late-2000s that corridor became a dead end. The state’s pension liabilities skyrocketed. Tough, painful reforms had to be instituted.

Eventually, the state pension board agreed to phase out the corridor funding method that had caused all the trouble.

Walking Away

Now, DLS is proposing that Maryland repeat its actions of the early 2000s, but without calling it “corridor funding.” The state would walk away from its pledge to state workers and teachers and stop its supplemental payments.

Sure, there would be short-term benefits, enabling legislators to allocate more money for other priorities. Over the next 11 years, the state would save $2 billion that could be spread around to worthy programs.

But here’s the catch: In the subsequent 14 years, the state would have to shell out a staggering $4.5 billion in extra payments to make the pension fund whole.

Even worse, that calculation doesn’t consider what happens to the pension fund in the next two or three recessions. After all, economic downturns are inevitable and an integral part of the economic cycle.

Nightmare on State Circle

What a nightmare this could turn into.

As Brinkley told the House Appropriations Committee on Friday, if the pension fund’s earnings performance turns south over the next 10 years, “this will be a disastrous decision.”

The legislature’s fiscal leaders, especially Del. Maggie McIntosh of Baltimore and Sen. Ed Kasemeyer of Howard County, need to think hard about the dire consequences that could ensue by taking such a dangerous step.

They should remember what writer-philosopher George Santayana said:

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

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Hogan’s ‘Deflategate’

By Barry Rascovar

Feb. 2, 2015 — Talk about an uneven fight! When it comes to shaping the Maryland state budget Gov. Larry Hogan Jr. is the pre-determined winner.

Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.

Think of the budget as a balloon. The governor decides how much air gets pumped into the balloon ($40 billion). Once this is done, the legislature can let out some air — but it can’t expand the size of the balloon at all.

This year the new Republican governor embarked on a truth-in-budgeting drive, eliminating much of Maryland’s underlying structural deficit with $1.3 billion in cuts.

In other words, Hogan presented the legislature with a dramatically smaller balloon to play with. And there’s nothing lawmakers can do to create a bigger budget balloon short of raising taxes — pretty much of a non-starter this year.

Hogan’s ‘Deflategate’

By taking a considerable amount of air out of former Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley’s overinflated budget balloon of last year, Hogan created his own “deflategate” controversy.

While Maryland’s gregarious governor can’t be compared to the frowning Bill Belichick of the NFL’s “deflategate” kerfuffle, Hogan isn’t making Democrats in the General Assembly happy.

'Deflategate' Novelty

‘Deflategate’ Novelty

The Black Caucus wants Hogan to reconsider his cuts to education in key aid categories that overwhelmingly impact two of the state’s worst-performing school districts — Baltimore City and Prince George’s County. A number of smaller, rural counties received education cuts as well, angering local educators.

Even Senate President Mike Miller, who is attempting to remain on good terms with Hogan, said, “We’ve got to try to get more money in the classroom.”

Easier said than done, as the cagey Miller well knows.

New Reality for Democrats

Democrats are facing a new playing field. Hogan brings to the table decades of experience as a real estate salesman. He’s got definite ideas on how to run the state in a business-like manner. That begins with keeping spending under control.

Thus, his first budget contains fewer transfers and gimmicks than during the O’Malley years, or even the Ehrlich years. Hogan spread his budget cuts around, though education and health care — the top spending drivers — took the biggest hits.

Hogan also is seeking legislative approval to weaken the state spending mandates on education, health care and the environment, among others. He wants those mandates changed so that required funding grows at a slower rate than the state’s annual spending plan.

This is straight out of Economics 101 — make sure you don’t pay out more than you take in, and build in a cushion.

If Democrats follow Hogan’s request, Maryland’s underlying structural deficit could be on the road to elimination for a few years.

No Free Ride

But Hogan isn’t going to be given a free ride. Compromises on both sides are inevitable. The hit to education will be moderated and some other cuts will be, too.

With guidance from the Department of Legislative Services, lawmakers will make $100 million or more in budget cuts in other areas. They also could juggle fund accounts and transfers in a manner that creates more cash in the state’s general fund budget.

Budget Secretary David Brinkley

Maryland Budget Secretary David Brinkley

Give-and-take discussions with Hogan and Budget Secretary David Brinkley will likely lead to common ground. In the end, the hit to education won’t be as severe.

Lower Spending Mandates?

As to Hogan’s request to lower on-going spending mandates, the General Assembly may decide to take a firmer stand.

Democrats cannot totally rebuff Hogan’s request to re-write the spending mandates because they then would have to find the money to pay for this new funding — an impossibility without raising taxes.

More likely, lawmakers will meet Hogan halfway — reduce the annual, mandated growth contained in these spending formulas, but not as much as the governor wants.

The sad reality for lawmakers is that Hogan doesn’t need a permanent change in the spending mandates to carry out his fiscal belt-tightening.

Same Script, Same Results 

If necessary, he can follow the same budget script in 2016 and beyond as this year, leaving lawmakers with little recourse but to go along with Hogan after hammering out concessions.

Hogan wins either way.

Adjusting to this new playing field isn’t comfortable for Democrats, who are used to having the Democratic governor tack on a few more tax increases to pay for ever-growing, mandated payments to local governments and social programs.

Yet Hogan’s budget adjustments are far from Draconian. He’s practicing traditional, conservative economics without being vindictive or mean-spirited.

Democrats in Annapolis have little choice but to adapt. Their only weapons: Political negotiation and compromise.

Barry Rascovar’s blog can be found at www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.

 

Hogan’s Placeholder Budget

By Barry Rascovar

Jan. 26, 2015 — Gov. Larry Hogan Jr. must be doing something right in his first few days in office because he’s got nearly everyone upset about his $40 billion budget.

Gov. Harry Hogan Jr.

Gov. Harry Hogan Jr.

Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives, lobbying groups of all shapes and sizes are griping about parts of the new governor’s spending plan.

That’s a good thing: Hogan needed to dispassionately cut $1.25 billion to present a balanced budget, which meant making everyone uncomfortable.

In reality, this is a placeholder budget for Hogan. The more substantive and important task of analyzing Maryland spending and eliminating or paring down non-essential expenditures will be reflected in Hogan’s  budget a year from now.

‘Just a Start’

The new governor laid this out clearly on Friday:

“The presentation of this budget is just a start. We will have much more to do in the days ahead to redirect our state’s fiscal course. Programs must be examined. New debt must be managed prudently. Agencies must be consolidated. Mandates must become affordable. In short, the government must become efficient and practice fiscal integrity.”

Think about the sweeping nature of what Hogan is saying.

  • A top-down deconstruction and reconstruction of every nook and cranny of the state budget.
  • A major downsizing of Maryland’s overly ambitious — and ruinously expensive — bond and construction program.
  • Elimination of some agencies or departments as separate entities.
  • A major debate on changing existing spending mandates so they are affordable.

Plenty of dust-ups and angry disagreements are inevitable. It will start in the current General Assembly session with Hogan’s “mandate relief legislation.”

There are dozens of requests in this budget for legislative changes to reduce mandatory state spending. That will test the limits of Democratic cooperation with the new Republican governor. Budget balancing Hogan’s immediate challenge was to whip up a patch-work budget that repaired the fiscal damage outgoing Gov. Martin O’Malley left behind — a budgetary river of red ink.

Thanks to the wizardry of gubernatorial adviser Bobby Neall — an acknowledged master of the state’s budgeting process — Hogan was able to balance to state’s books without causing extreme harm to any needy group.

Instead, Neall and Hogan found ways to nip and tuck throughout state government and rein in aid to localities. Neall and Hogan ratcheted down state spending from 5 percent growth to 1.5 percent growth — a full two percentage points below slowing revenue forecasts.

Keeping growth well under the tax money flowing in will be a hallmark of the Hogan years.

Former Sen. Bobby Neall

Former State Sen. Bobby Neall

To balance the books, state employees will lose their 2 percent pay increase that started in January but which now will end in July. The workers’ unions aren’t happy.

Neither are environmentalists with Hogan’s bid to take $50 million from Program Open Space and not pay it back later. The Big Three jurisdictions — Baltimore City, Montgomery County and Prince George’s County — got hit hard with cuts to education aid. Yet so did smaller jurisdictions.

The counties also were upset with Hogan’s failure to increase local highway aid, which ended up getting cut. Hogan was an equal-opportunity, bipartisan budget-cutter.

Tough Road Ahead

The governor’s spending blueprint is, as he indicated, a starting point. Tough negotiations lie ahead with legislative budget leaders on ways to re-arrange some of the pieces to this fiscal puzzle.

With luck, there will be an upward revenue revision in March to ease some of the pain that Hogan imposed to get Maryland’s budget back in structural balance.

As Hogan noted, Maryland has been following “an unsustainable fiscal path” for a long time.

Even under Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich, no lasting attempt was made to keep the general fund budget structurally balanced. In recent years under O’Malley, no attempt was made to reform out-of-control borrowing that is now leading to out-of-sight debt costs.

Fixing messy budget situations is never pleasant or easy.

It took an outsider with no elective government experience to bite the bullet.

Hogan has his work cut out to find middle-ground agreement on his budget fixes — but he is off to a solid start.

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Hogan’s Era of Good Feeling

By Barry Rascovar

Jan. 21, 2015 — At least for a brief moment, Gov. Larry Hogan Jr.’s Era of Good Feeling ruled Annapolis.

Hogan Inauguration

We’ll soon learn if his strong message of bipartisan harmony and mutual respect can survive the harsh reality of Hogan’s first, greatly diminished budget, which he’ll release Thursday.

Hogan’s inaugural, with snow flakes falling faster and faster as the event progressed, struck all the right chords.

“Dignity, respect and camaraderie” is what we expect from our public servants, said Jim Brady, who presided over the outdoor ceremonies on the State House steps and also ran Hogan’s transition team.

“Focus on things that unite us” and “work across party lines,” was how Lt. Gov. Boyd Rutherford put it.

“Compromise and consensus are not dirty words,” emphasized New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who introduced the new Maryland governor and championed Hogan’s election.

Hogan’s Themes

“A rebirth of our spirit and common purposes,” is how the 62nd governor of the Free State expressed it. No more “wedge politics and petty rhetoric.” A “new beginning.” A “sense of optimism.” “Limitless possibilities.” “An environment of trust and cooperation” where ideas are acted upon “based on merit.”

All the right words. It was a typical inaugural, full of positives and good wishes.

Hogan came across as he always does: a down-to-earth fellow who wants to run government with the focus on efficiency and effectiveness, not political ideology. He repeatedly used the term “common sense” to describe how he will govern.

He quoted a Democrat (John F. Kennedy) and a Republican (Abraham Lincoln) to stress the need for a new approach in political Annapolis that sets aside differences and finds “middle ground.”

A Little Red Meat

There were a few digs sprinkled among the words of comity, especially when Hogan spoke of “rebuilding the forgotten middle class” and getting government “off our backs and out of our pockets” — red-meat Republican applause lines straight from his campaign monologue.

Once the celebrations are over late tonight, the real work begins. It won’t be pretty and it won’t be met with unified applause.

Hogan promised to set Maryland on a different course, one that re-shapes the bloated state budget in ways Democrats are likely to resist.

The Inauguration Scene

The Inauguration Scene

There is growing agreement even on the Democratic side that Maryland has been living beyond its means, that spending on programs is expanding faster than the tax receipts coming in.

But will lawmakers stand by idly as cuts are made to education and health care? Are they willing to forego mass transit lines? These are the kinds of questions intentionally left out of inaugural speeches.

Putting Maryland on a more sustainable fiscal footing is an admirable goal that could help Hogan meet his pledge to lower taxes. Yet it will be difficult to achieve in the short term and possibly even in the long term unless Hogan gets  a boost from the national economy.

On another front, Hogan can take early, unilateral steps to cut red-tape and bureaucratic regulations. It’s been needed for a long time. The push-back from special interests could be intense, though.

For a day, Larry Hogan’s vision of a less partisan, more practical state government in Annapolis held sway.

The Hogans and Rutherfords in the State House.

The Hogans and Rutherfords in the State House.

His unfailing optimism and ability to search for areas of agreement are his greatest assets. He’s taking a more accommodating track than Maryland’s last Republican governor, Bob Ehrlich.

So far, Hogan is off to a cheery and encouraging start.

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