O’Malley Pitches, Hogan Receives, Gansler Swings

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 19, 2014 — My, how the wheel turns — for Gov. Martin O’Malley, Gov.-elect Larry Hogan Jr. and outgoing Attorney General Doug Gansler.

O’Malley Pitches

The lame-duck governor is in fund-raising mode. He’s all but officially running for president (despite guffaws from the home folks), which takes lots of moola. So it was off to New York to impress prospective donors.

Gov. Martin O'Malley

Gov. Martin O’Malley

Thursday, O’Malley hosts a songfest with musician Steven Stills. It was originally scheduled to be held in a lounge at the Hippodrome Theatre in Baltimore, with tickets ranging up to $10,000 for the O Say Can You See Committee, the front group for O’Malley’s presidential ambitions.

It also was also conceived as a post-election celebration after the sweeping gubernatorial win of Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown.

Oops.

A funny thing happened on the  way to Victory Lane — Brown got clobbered, Republicans in Maryland staged a remarkable recovery and O’Malley drew voters’ ire for an endless string of tax increases and outsized spending.

The Stills event now has been moved to a large tent at the home of major O’Malley supporter Martin Knott.

One longtime Democratic donor was inundated with solicitations. Would he buy a $5,000 ticket? As the event drew closer, he was asked, how about a $1,000 ticket? Days later, the request came down to a $500 ticket. Finally, he was told, “Oh, what the heck. Just come. We’ll let you in.”

Roughly 100 supporters are expected to attend.

The ever-energetic O’Malley also has a fund-raiser planned Friday night at the home of federal lobbyist Terry Lierman. He will be celebrating his daughter’s election to the Maryland House of Delegates from Baltimore as well as toasting O’Malley.

Meanwhile, O’Malley is bolstering his liberal environmental record by cracking down, through tough regulations, on use of phosphorus fertilizers, especially on poultry farms. The cost could be devastating for small farmers, but O’Malley is thinking about his own political future, not the future of Eastern Shore farm families.

He’s also issuing frequent press releases from the governor’s office on such issues as climate change and the Keystone heavy-oil pipeline, siding with the environmentalists he wants to romance nationally.

As for governing Maryland, that’s less of a priority. O’Malley’s thoughts are turning to making national news all the time.

Hogan Receives

While O’Malley is struggling to draw fund-raising crowds, Governor-elect Hogan has no such problem. He held a small soiree for VIP supporters and raised $250,000 for the state GOP. He’s now a very popular guy. He’ll have no trouble wiping out the $500,000 loan he made to his own campaign.

That won’t be the case for the guy Hogan defeated, Anthony Brown. He borrowed $500,000 from a local labor union and failed to raise enough money to pay back the loan on time. Even with this last-minute loan, Brown ran short of funds and failed to keep pounding away with TV commercials in the final days of the campaign.

Now he may be pounding hard to find donors willing to help a defeated candidate pay off this giant IOU before 2018. If he doesn’t, Brown will have to repay the loan himself.

Gansler Swings

Attorney General Gansler didn’t expect to lose the gubernatorial primary to Brown, but he ran into a united front from Democratic Party big shots determined to elevate Brown. He also discovered that a third candidate, Heather Mizeur, chipped away at his liberal support.

Gansler didn’t have a backup plan. For him, failure wasn’t an option — but it happened nonetheless.

Attorney General Doug Gansler

Attorney General Doug Gansler

Faced with having to find a job as a lawyer after 16 years in public service, Gansler was flooded with enticing offers. He chose a relatively new firm that quickly has gained status in legal circles for its work helping businesses, BuckleySandler. It’s a Washington firm with offices in the Big Apple, San Francisco, Chicago and (how nice) London.

Don’t expect Gansler to disappear from the Maryland political scene, though. He’s going to wind up on a slew of non-profit boards and is continuing to work vigorously to grow his inner-city lacrosse league in Baltimore.

With no obvious front-runner among Democrats to take on Hogan in four years, Gansler may make another stab. Once you’ve been bitten by the political bug, it’s hard to let go.

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For more columns, click on www.politicalmaryland.com

 

 

MD’s New Normal

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 17, 2014–The outlook for the Maryland state government Larry Hogan Jr. starts running in January is grim: A sea of red ink far into the future.

Forget about major tax cuts or other campaign promises. That was a hope more than a firm commitment. Hogan said as much to voters. His first priority then and now: getting Maryland’s financial house in order.

Governor-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

Governor-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

How bad is it?

Spending is running roughly $400 million ahead of revenues this fiscal year – and the same gap is projected for next year and the following 12 months.

Maryland’s estimated structural deficit during that time is nearly $1.2 billion.

Over the next six years, the total structural deficit is projected at close to $4.3 billion.

Whiz Kid

No wonder Hogan announced that fiscal whiz Bobby Neall would be plotting a budget triage plan by year’s end. It will be a Herculean task.

Neall has the credentials.

He sensibly downsized Anne Arundel County government as county executive. He was a strong advocate of cautious, common sense spending as a leader of the House and Senate budget committees. He’s been a voice in the wilderness on the Spending Affordability Committee crying out for far-reaching fiscal reforms – usually rejected by legislative liberals and the “progressive” O’Malley-Brown administration.

Bobby Neall

Fiscal Whiz Bobby Neall

Neall correctly pointed out last week that one of the main trouble spots is the soaring cost of debt payments. Too many state bonds were issued in recent years. The proverbial chickens are coming home to roost.

Unless something is changed, debt service will triple from two years ago — to $268 million. By 2019-2020, debt service will hit $559 million.

Even worse, there’s only one realistic way to curb that rising expense — a step Hogan definitely won’t take: Raise the state property tax rate.

Difficult Cuts

Other big spending-growth areas also will be difficult, if not impossible, to cut.

Education aid to the counties is set to rise by $304 million next year, higher education by $225 million and public safety by $175 million. Most of this is due to mandated increases.

Unexpected expenses related to the expansion of Medical Assistance under Obamacare adds a whopping $410 million next year as well.

The overall problem is easy to identify.

Too much spending by liberal Gov. Martin O’Malley; a weakened state economy that isn’t recovering as expected.

Not enough coming in; too much going out.

Welcome to the New Normal.

False Assumptions

O’Malley and other liberals always assumed that Maryland would rebound strongly from the Great Recession. It never happened.

Job creation has remained uneven. It’s been flat for the past six months. Republicans in Washington have stalled growth in the federal bureaucracy that employs so many Maryland residents. Contractors in Maryland who are dependent on the federal government are seeing a definite slowdown that will continue with the GOP taking full control of Congress.

Adapting to a smaller federal government could be painful for Maryland. Yet that is part of today’s reality.

Budget balancing

The New Normal means Maryland government will have to shrink, too. It means less money flowing back to local governments as well.

Capital spending will be affected. In the past, a small state real estate tax was sufficient to pay debt service on general obligation bonds. But property values took a sharp plunge in 2008 and have yet to recover fully. That trend may persist for the rest of the decade.

This year, O’Malley for the first time dipped into the state’s general funds to pay for debt service. With housing prices stalled, Hogan is facing far larger debt service payments coming from the general fund starting next year.

Diverting Bond Proceeds

The situation was made worse by O’Malley’s decision to pay some on-going budget expenses with proceeds from state bonds. This diversion has taken nearly $2.5 billion out of the state’s construction program and has increased debt service markedly.

It’s an ugly aspect of the New Normal.

On the campaign trail, Hogan made cutting state spending sound easy. It’s not.

For starters, 58 percent of the growth in Maryland’s budget next year is required by law or by legislative mandates enacted in 2014. This is untouchable without assent from the liberal General Assembly.

Local aid will be hard to cut, too. Eight-six percent of that money goes to schools. Touching this ever-growing pot could be next to impossible given the popularity of education among voters.

Why not slash the bureaucracy? Amazingly, the size of the state’s work force is virtually the same as it was in 2002. There might not be as much “fat” on the bone as Hogan indicated during the campaign.

Unpleasant Options

Hogan may have to settle for incremental reductions throughout government. He may have to take some distasteful steps, too, perhaps nudging up the state property tax slightly. He’ll almost surely have to lower aid to the counties – another unpleasant task that won’t win him friends in counties that supported him.

He won’t win fans by shrinking the school construction program, either. But it has to be done to restore a sense of fiscal equilibrium.

What a mess O’Malley is leaving behind. He let spending spin out of control. He ignored clear signs that growth in state revenue was slowing and that federal hiring and contracting were shrinking. These are long-term trends.

Budget issues will dominate Hogan’s first four months in the State House. He will need cooperation from Democratic legislators to get Maryland out of this fiscal bind.

Gridlock is not an option.

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Barry Rascovar’s blog is www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com

Missing: Democratic Moderates in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 14, 2014 — Hardly noticed in the Nov. 4 election that saw Anthony Brown wiped out in an embarrassing avalanche of rejection was the obliteration of the Democratic Party’s moderate-conservative wing in Annapolis.

Missing Democratic Moderate: Sen. Roy Dyson

Defeated Sen. Roy Dyson

Gone is Southern Maryland Sen. Roy Dyson. Gone is half-century veteran Baltimore County Sen. Norman Stone (retirement). Gone is a Howard County fixture, Sen. Jim Robey (retirement).

Also out of luck, conservative Western Maryland Del. Kevin Kelly, moderate Western Maryland Del. John Donoghue, conservative Baltimore County Delegates Mike Weir, Jimmy Malone (retirement), Steve DeBoy (retirement) and Sonny Minnick (retirement), moderate-conservative Del. Emmett Burns of Baltimore County (retirement), Eastern Shore Committee Chairman Del. Norm Conway, Cecil County Del. David Randolph, Southern Maryland Delegates John Bohanan and Johnny Wood (retirement), Harford County Del. Mary-Dulany James, and Frederick County Del. Galen Clagett (retirement).

The Democratic Party’s fulcrum in the State House now is dangerously weighted to the strident left. The party’s center-right legislators have shrunk to a handful.

It’s tough even coming up with who you’d place in that category in the House of Delegates once you get beyond House Speaker Mike Busch.  You can count less than ten moderates still left in the Senate, including President Mike Miller — Charles County’s Mac Middleton, Frederick’s Ron Young, Anne Arundel’s John Astle and Ed DeGrange, Ocean City’s Jim Mathias, Baltimore County’s Jim Brochin and Kathy Klausmeier.

Miller’s Leverage

Miller’s problem is much less severe than Busch’s.

The smaller Senate chamber gives the Senate president extensive leverage to impose moderation on Democrats. Senators there know that if you’re picked for a leadership slot, you’d better follow Miller’s cautious lead.

But in the 141-member House, riding herd on an overwhelmingly liberal Democratic Caucus could prove Mission Impossible.

Simply finding a leadership group willing to move toward the middle might be a challenge for Busch.

Even more daunting may be convincing leftist Democrats to cooperate with the new conservative governor, Republican Larry Hogan Jr.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Governor-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

Already some of the left-wingers are talking ominously about fighting a partisan war rather than smoking a peace pipe with Hogan.

Busch and Miller don’t want a repeat of the dreadful gridlock and bitterness of the Ehrlich years. Neither does Hogan, who lived through that frustrating era as the governor’s appointments secretary.

But what will the two sides compromise on? And will their disagreements wind up poisoning the well of cooperation?

This will be the focus of attention as Hogan starts putting his administration together and formulates a brief agenda for the legislative session that starts in just two months.

Room for Agreement

Busch and Miller signaled in the last General Assembly session their agreement with Hogan that the O’Malley administration had neglected business development. Maryland must become more accommodating to companies. That’s a clear area where partial agreement is possible.

Ironically, Republican gains in the General Assembly could make it more difficult for Hogan to govern effectively.

The dearth of moderate-conservative Democrats in the State House robs him of potential allies. He still needs lots of Democratic votes to pass his agenda. Dealing with a ultra-liberal Democratic corps of lawmakers could prove perilous. It could force the governor-elect to take a go-slow approach in his reform plans.

Many of the newly elected Democrats may choose to join Miller and Busch in playing centrist politics with Hogan. After all, it is the best way to get things done and avoid the thing voters most detest — gridlock.

Yet without a counter-balancing Democratic center-right wing, the party caucuses in Annapolis could keep moving farther and farther to the left, ceding the center that voters admire to Hogan.

That would be foolish politics — but it could happen.

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Edgar Silver: Political MD’s Unsung Hero

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 11, 2014–For well over half a century, Edgar P. Silver was the “unsung hero” of Maryland politics. Few in the public knew the name, but the politicos sure did.

Edgar P. Silver

Edgar P. Silver

consigliere to elected leaders. Trusted adviser to politicians — left, right and center. A  judge’s judge. A friend to the end.

Known simply as “The Judge” to his legion of acquaintances, Silver, died today at the age of 91.

He mastered two long-forgotten arts — schmoozing and working the phones.

Silver’s Rolodex contained just about every important Maryland politician’s personal phone number. His days were spent with a phone to his ear and nary a stitch of paper on his desk.

Wealth of Knowledge

Politicians loved Edgar Silver, with good reason.

He was a fount of valuable advice and political know-how. You could confide in him your worst secrets knowing he’d keep it private. He would listen, commiserate and then offer comforting, practical guidance.

You could trust “The Judge.” He had rock-solid integrity. He respected your viewpoint. All he wanted to do was help you succeed.

He grew up poor near Druid Hill Park, his mother from Russia, his tailor father from Austria. Eighty years later he still recalled the anguish of accompanying his mother in the dark Depression days to a bank on Pennsylvania Avenue that held the family’s life savings — only to discover the bank could only pay out 10 cents on the dollar.

Young Edgar ran errands for folks on Eden Street. He made himself available to help neighbors in need. He liked people, and politicians. He started manning the polls at 15.

No wonder he won his first race for public office – defeating an unknown William Donald Schaefer. Three terms later, Silver was appointed to the bench (after he let reporters know he might run for the state Senate).

Judge Edgar Silver

Judge Edgar Silver

Silver’s Baltimore courtroom gained a reputation as the place where defendants got a fair shake, where they were treated kindly and respectfully. He’d even read the guilty parties that day’s menu at the City Jail so they’d know what to expect.

One time, he sentenced a robber to prison, then spotted the robber’s young brother. Silver had the lad sit on his lap while he explained what was going on. He didn’t want the child to think badly of judges or the criminal justice system.

What a guy.

Silver handled politicians the same way – with exquisite kindness and understanding. He knew how to use his extensive contacts to smooth over difficult situations, to play intermediary between officials, to offer solid advice.

Governors craved his insights. Senate President Mike Miller became a longtime family friend. Ben Cardin and Barbara Mikulski reveled in his sagacious suggestions. Elijah Cummings treated him almost like a second father.

On and on the list goes. Silver extended a helping hand and discerning suggestions to a wide range of friends – Peter Angelos, Lou Kousouris, Joe and Karin De Francis, Alan Rifkin, Judge Bob Steinberg, Judge Joe Murphy, and even occasionally to Cardinal William Keeler.

Civil Rights Champion

He also was the “unsung hero” of black lawyers seeking judgeships. Silver played a behind-the-scenes role in getting literally dozens of African Americans on the bench. Baltimore’s first black police commissioner got the job largely because of Silver’s intervention. He was a one-man civil rights movement.

When a young legislative aide to Schaefer, Alan Rifkin, started his own law firm, Silver agreed to assist – very briefly as a partner and then as “of counsel” Wise Man of what is now Rifkin, Weiner, Livingston, Levitan and Silver. He lent the firm credibility and integrity.

“The best is yet to come.”

That was Edgar Silver’s oft-repeated motto. He never looked on the dark side of a problem. He only saw brightness in people and in situations. And he knew how to laugh. He didn’t take anything too seriously for long.

Delegate Edgar Silver

Delegate Edgar Silver

He certainly played a big role in my life. After The Baltimore Sun cut its staff and offered me a buyout, I became a stateless person in search of a new career.

In stepped The Judge with suggestions and ideas. He and Rifkin gave me a desk and a computer while I figured out how to run a one-man communications/writing consulting firm.

Best of all, I got to chat at length each day with Edgar Silver, about politics and politicians and about life. This office dialogue went on for 12 years, and then continued with friendly lunches and phone conversations.

Once in a great while, an individual influences your life. His advice stays with you for eternity. It becomes a guiding light. Such was the case with Edgar Silver in my life – and in the lives of hundreds, if not thousands, of others in Maryland.

What a difference he made.

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Barry Rascovar’s blog is politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.

The One-Party State Curse

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 10, 2014–Republican Larry Hogan Jr.’s stunningly easy romp over Democrat Anthony Brown in Maryland’s race for governor can’t be written off as a fluke.

Governor-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

Governor-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

Fundamental changes are taking place that could give Republicans an advantage down the road in what is generally considered a deeply blue state.

You can call it the curse of the one-party state.

Common wisdom has it that given the Democrats’ 2-1 commanding lead in Maryland’s voter registration, Democratic victory in big races is a foregone conclusion.

But the common wisdom often is wrong.

Democratic Advantage

In three of the state’s biggest jurisdictions, Democrats hold such a massive registration lead that the local Republican Party is on life support. Big turnouts in Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County should be enough to ensure statewide Democratic triumph.

Yet that didn’t happen this year because turnout in those three locations was terrible.

Only 36 percent of city voters went to the polls; 38 percent in Prince George’s and just 39 percent in Montgomery.

Compare that with the turnout in counties where Hogan piled up big numbers: Anne Arundel County and Baltimore County, 49 percent; Baltimore County, 49 percent; Frederick County, 51 percent;, Harford County, 54 percent, and Howard County, 52 percent.

Democrats must be scratching their heads. This shouldn’t be happening!

If the Big 3 jurisdictions had turned out in force, Brown would be addressing invitations to his inaugural ball.

More Registered Voters

Even more puzzling is the fact that all three of those jurisdictions have seen big jumps in registered voters over the past 12 years — 79,000 more voters in the city, 168,000 more in Montgomery and 178,000 more voters in Prince George’s — nearly all Democrats.

With 1,553,000 Big 3 registered voters, who usually support the Democrat by 4-1 or 5-1 margins, how could Brown possibly lose?

Blame it on the Democrats’ greatest strength — their huge advantage in people identifying with the party. In this case, it is a curse rather than a blessing.

Here’s what’s happening: In Baltimore City, there hasn’t been a Republican mayor in 50 years. There hasn’t been a Republican state legislator or councilman from the city in 60 years. No Republican has held elective office in Baltimore in half a century.

So it’s no surprise Baltimore voters don’t take the mid-term general election seriously.

No Competition

All the local races this year were decided in the June Democratic primary. Indeed, only one of the city’s six state Senate districts even had a nominal Republican on the ballot. He got 6 percent of the vote.

The situation is similar in Prince George’s, where the last Republican county executive was Larry Hogan’s father and namesake — 34 years ago. No Republican has held a local office in decades.

Montgomery is follow that same trend. James P. Gleason was the one and only Republican county executive, last elected in 1978. Republicans used to capture local seats in the upper sections of the county, but no more. It, too, is now a one-party monopoly.

That should be good for the Democratic Party, right?

Wrong.

Cruise Control

One-party rule turns general elections into mere formalities. Local political clubs don’t get energized. Local politicians don’t bother campaigning. The local party is on cruise control.

Democratic voters feel the same way. Why go to the polls in November 4 when all the local races already have been decided?

This trend started decades ago and we’re now seeing the corrosive effects.

The last time there was an open seat for governor — 2002 — the general election turnout was 53 percent in the city, 52 percent in Prince George’s and 64 percent in Montgomery.

Contrast that with this month’s turnout and you see a precipitous plunge in voters going to be polls. The decline in Baltimore was 18 percent, 14 percent in Prince George’s and a shocking drop of 25 percent in Montgomery’s voter participation.

Montgomery’s Ennui

That last figure is the most stunning number of all.

Montgomery County is famed for its acute awareness of a citizen’s obligations to cast a ballot and take an active role in local government. Good government and close attention to political issues is deeply rooted in this county.

Yet even with 168,000 more registered voters than 12 years ago, 48,000 fewer ballots were cast this month in Montgomery.

The ennui in Montgomery should deeply disturb state Democrats. A 25 percent decline in turnout over a 12-year period is a calamity.

Add that to the similar trends in Prince George’s and Baltimore and you begin to understand why a Republican is hiring The Kane Co. to move his furniture to the Governor’s Mansion.

Chink in the Armor

It’s ironic. The Democrats’ greatest attribute is now a potentially fatal flaw.

Without competitive, two-party elections, the party in power relaxes. It gets sloppy and complacent. It gets lazy and even arrogant. It can’t energize its members.

Hogan capitalized on this chink in the Democrats’ armor because his strongholds turned out in big numbers. His supporters were highly motivated. They showed up to vote.

What will happen four years from now? Or in eight years?

One-party Democratic rule won’t change in the Big 3 any time soon — if ever. The one-party mentality could grow even stronger — with lackluster turnouts in mid-term November elections.

It’s an Achilles heel that the Democratic Party, despite its huge edge in identified supporters, doesn’t know how to protect.

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Barry Rascovar’s blog is www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.        

 

How Brown Blew a Sure Thing

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 7, 2014 — Yes, Republican Larry Hogan Jr. ran a smart, tightly focused campaign that helped him pull off a surprisingly strong upset in the race for Maryland governor. But the major reason he’s the next chief executive is that Democrat Anthony Brown blew a sure thing.

Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown

Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown

Here’s how Brown turned almost certain victory into a humiliating defeat:

He Blew An 8-Year Head Start 

Brown had two terms as lieutenant governor to put down deep roots in all the right places throughout Maryland. It never happened. Instead, he traveled constantly giving written speeches and then driving off to the next staged event.

He never bothered to familiarize himself with the people of Maryland; instead he limited his circle to elected officials and receptive civic groups.

He failed to jump in and learn about what wasn’t working in the counties — and then help local leaders find a fix.

He didn’t spend his vacations walking the Ocean City boardwalk meeting and talking with common folk.

He didn’t spend his time in Western Maryland getting to understand the unique problems of this isolated, mountain region in chronic need of a helping hand from Annapolis.

He didn’t tour Baltimore City and its vast suburbs to find out what was on people’s minds. He was as alien to them on Tuesday as he was eight years ago.

He Took the Summer Off

Brown started with a huge lead and everything in his favor. He breezed to an easy primary victory. Then he disappeared for the entire summer.

That’s when he should have cemented his relationship with local Democrats, hit every carnival, parade, crab feast and bull roast in sight. Preaching at Sunday services isn’t enough. You’ve got to show your face everywhere  and press the flesh. You’ve got to work up a sweat and convince people you’d make a great next-door neighbor. That’s what Hogan did.

By delaying his campaign till the fall, Brown lost his momentum.

He should have used the summer to organize a statewide tour featuring the full Democratic team — Brian Frosh running for attorney general and Peter Franchot running for comptroller.

He also needed to turn the losing primary candidates, Doug Gansler and Heather Mizeur, into surrogate campaigners. Brown never gained the trust of Gansler and Mizeur voters because he didn’t bother to try.

He Gave Hogan Free Advertising

Hogan emerged from the Republican primary with little money and low name recognition. But no matter, Brown rode to the rescue by giving Hogan millions of dollars worth of free advertising.

Instead of ignoring Hogan — and letting him struggle to gain visibility — Brown spent most of his advertising budget denouncing Hogan as a “dangerous Republican.” Hogan’s face was plastered on TV ads.

When it turned out that Brown’s charges were bogus and inherently dishonest, this sleazy tactic backfired. Brown ended up wasting his ad dollars, offending voters and promoting Hogan while not telling voters anything about himself.

Negative Attacks Aren’t Enough

The first job was to tell the electorate about Anthony Brown — in his own words. Repeatedly. With emotion and real feelings.

Instead, Brown bombarded the air waves with ruthlessly hostile, negative ads — flagrantly false — about Hogan. The Republican got all the attention, not Brown, who continued to remain a mystery even to Democratic voters.

When Hogan turned out not to be Darth Vader but instead a friendly, mild-mannered Rotarian, Brown’s attack ads lost all credibility. They were unethical. This turned off Democrats and independents. It was a gigantic mistake.

Where Was Martin? 

Brown badly needed Gov. Martin O’Malley on the campaign trail from June through October. Yet Brown never capitalized on O’Malley’s magnetic personality and hands-on approach to campaigning.

Is O'Malley's presidential bid for real?

Gov. Martin O’Malley

Since Brown proved unwilling or unable to articulate what the two had achieved in eight years, what better spokesman for the O’Malley era than the governor himself?

But once again, it never happened. O’Malley was the invisible man in the campaign. Brown got hammered on O’Malley’s record yet there was no one mounting a persuasive defense.

Where Was Heather? 

The surprise of the primary election was Democrat Heather Mizeur. Young and progressive voters flocked to her ultra-liberal crusade. After she lost, she volunteered to campaign for Brown — only to receive a polite snub.

Her supporters lost interest. Many didn’t bother to vote in November. The opportunity to spark interest in the Brown campaign among young progressives was lost.

Isolation Booth Campaigning is a Dud 

Brown let his campaign gurus call the shots — even when the moves made no sense. They isolated Brown from the common folk, from the media and from any human contact that wasn’t carefully scripted.

Brown is a Harvard grad with 16 years of political experience. Yet he was muzzled and insulated from the retail side of campaigning. That’s where a candidate reveals his human side. Voters need to glimpse a candidate’s humanity.

He compounded this sin by excluding his own voice from nearly all campaign ads. He never got the chance in his ads to personally address voters with genuine, heart-felt words.

The Big 3 Isn’t Enough

Brown’s strategy was to win big in Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County. He largely ignored everywhere else.

Yet he needed to spend lots of time impressing Democrats and independents in all the outlier counties where Republicans dominate. When he failed to pay attention to them, they drifted over to Hogan — or didn’t vote. He lost precious support not only in rural counties but also big jurisdictions like Anne Arundel, Harford, Howard and Baltimore counties. Hogan won there by giant margins in part because Brown was a no-show in those counties.

No Coordination with Local Democrats 

Just as Brown snubbed Mizeur, he also snubbed local Democrats badly in need of help in their local campaigns.

Other politicians and Democratic supporters pleaded with Brown’s camp to set up small-scale events in their districts to generate enthusiasm and energize local voters. They, too, were rebuffed.

Brown ran a one-man campaign focused on No. 1. As a result, many local pols didn’t go the extra mile to help Brown.

Policy Does Count

To this day, we’re still not sure what Brown specifically wanted to do as governor. He spent his time attacking Hogan rather than laying out a coherent, compelling visions for the next four years.

Hogan was very clear: reduce spending, cut taxes and regulations, support business growth that creates more jobs.

Brown told voters lots of reasons — most of them fallacious — why they shouldn’t vote for Hogan but precious few reasons why they should vote for him.

Voters Saw Through Brown’s Façade

Voters know the office of Maryland lieutenant governor is a worthless job. You shouldn’t put it on your resume, but Brown did. He needed instead to give voters plausible reasons to continue the reforms O’Malley started. He needed to explain what they had accomplished rather than stress his military background and service as light guv.

Brown was content as lieutenant governor to play a figurehead role on commissions and committees (such as the health-care exchange) and relentlessly read prepared texts to safe groups around the state.

When asked during the campaign, what he’d done since 2006 to justify election as governor, Brown couldn’t give a satisfactory answer.

The Media Matters

People get much of their political insights through media outlets. Denying reporters access to a candidate is dangerously counter-productive.

Brown at times ran from reporters. When asked an unexpected question, he looked like a deer caught in headlights.

Hogan stayed behind following the three debates, joked with reporters and responded to their queries. Brown quickly headed toward his chauffeured SUV and drove off.

Like it or not, politicians must romance the media.

Reporters write nicer stories if they get to know and like the candidate. Editorial page editors write kinder opinion pieces about a candidate who is open, friendly and a frequent presence.

That describes Larry Hogan, not Anthony Brown. Guess who won?

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Barry Rascovar’s blog is www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com. 

MD Sea Change — Every 8 Years

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 6, 2014–On the way to his coronation as Maryland governor, Anthony Brown lost his crown. He’s still looking for it.

Republican Larry Hogan Jr. picked up the missing package. it was beautifully gift-wrapped for him. When he tried it on, the crown fit perfectly.

So ended the second Maryland gubernatorial upset in 12 years.

Maryland seal

The state’s voting public is volatile and looking for change — always.

A seismic shift seems to happen every eight years.

Back in Time

Go all the way back to 1950. Voters had had it with conservative Democratic Gov. William Preston Lane’s new sales tax. They called the levy “pennies for Lane” and buried him in a landslide. Enter, Republican Theodore Roosevelt McKeldin.

In 1958, the liberal McKeldin gave way to a conservative Democrat, J. Millard Tawes. Maryland voters philosophically swung from left to right.

Then in 1966, voters abandoned the Democrats for conservative Republican Spiro Agnew. Another sea change.

Jumping ahead, the tumultuous Marvin Mandel years, filled with stunning liberal initiatives, were followed by an eight-year period of relative calm as voters elected a “shiny-bright” good-government candidate, Harry Hughes in 1978. The electorate wanted a conservative, cautious and honest leader.

The quiet, deliberate Hughes gave way in 1986 to the colorful, outspoken and spontaneous William Donald Schaefer. Voters replaced a conservative governor with a liberal.

Schaefer’s quirkiness and charisma were replaced in 1994 by a studious, stand-offish professorial policy wonk, Parris Glendening.

Next came a sharp swing to the right with the election of a charismatic conservative, Bob Ehrlich, over a drab liberal, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, in 2002.

Political Seesaw

That didn’t work out well. So voters next opted for a charismatic liberal, Martin O’Malley, in 2006. This political seasaw can make you dizzy.

Eight years later, voters got tired of O’Malley’s liberalism and now have put conservative, unexciting glad-hander, Larry Hogan, in the chief executive’s chair. Another sea change.

Conclusions: Maryland voters are unpredictable. Voters grow tired of elected leaders after about six or seven years. They want change. From conservative to liberal — then back again. From charismatic to bland. From Democrat to Republican — and back again.

The state’s demographics may change dramatically, but one thing is certain — Maryland voters won’t stay wedded to one political party or one ideology or one political personality for long. They remain solidly committed to instant gratification, a shifting view toward politics and a skepticism toward the very politicians they select to run the state.

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MD Gov. Larry Hogan Jr. — Yes!

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 5, 2014 — Ripped from Maryland’s political headlines:

Gov.-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

Gov.-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

  • Toiling in the vineyards produces a mighty fine wine: Hogan’s Harvest.
  • The curse of the MD lieutenant governor’s office continues.
  • Honesty remains the best policy.
  • The end does not justify the means.
  • The MD GOP finally has a strong bench in the counties.
  • Retail politics works; campaigning in an isolation booth doesn’t.
  • Maryland finally joins the rest of the nation.
  • It’s the economy, stupid.
  • And also, KISS works (Keep It Simple, Stupid)
  • If Democrats in MD can’t get their base to the polls, it’s all over.
  • Voters are a lot smarter than political prognosticators.

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Election Eve Conclusions in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 3, 2014 – On the eve of Maryland’s unexpectedly close gubernatorial election, some tentative conclusions can be drawn:

Pluses for Brown

Anthony Brown did quite well in attracting Democrats to the polls during early voting.

Nearly one-third of all ballots cast came from three heavily Democratic jurisdictions – Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County. Each showed a substantial jump in turnout from the June primary.

Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown-May 7 debate

Anthony Brown

Overall, 102,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans. Brown should start with a big lead on Election Day.

Another good sign for Brown: The state’s heaviest voting polling place last week was in Randallstown, the heart of Baltimore County’s growing black community.

More good news for the Democrat: Brown’s running mate, Ken Ulman, did exceedingly well in drawing Democrats to the polls early in Howard County with a 13 percent turnout (the statewide average was 8.3 percent).

Hogan’s Shore Support

Republican Larry Hogan can take comfort in the hefty early voting on the Eastern Shore. That Congressional District cast more votes last week than anywhere else.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Yet Brown must be pleased by the turnout in three of his key Congressional Districts that contain most of the state’s African American population – the 4th (Prince George’s County and Anne Arundel County), the 5th (Prince George’s and Southern Maryland) and the 7th (black and liberal areas of Metro Baltimore).

The jurisdiction with the largest early turnout, Baltimore County, is likely to favor Hogan, but not by the kind of lopsided Brown margins expected in Prince George’s County and Baltimore City.

Brown got mixed signals in traditionally liberal Montgomery County, which had a weak early turnout. Yet this year’s early Montgomery numbers were 30 percent better than four years ago.

Early voting, still a new trend in Maryland, appears to favor Democrats.

Republicans remain leery of additional ballot days. They see it as a Democratic scheme to use the superior organizing  skill of  labor unions to convey more minority, poor and working voters to the polls during those seven extra voting days.

Celebrity Buzz

Bringing Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama to Prince George’s County seems to have generated enough buzz to generate a 9.5 percent turnout among the county’s Democratic voters.

Hogan’s celebrity politician, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, brought the GOP candidate money and media coverage with his multiple appearances. Christie, though, isn’t a big enough draw to help Hogan’s early vote numbers.

First Lady Michelle Obama’s appearance today in Baltimore could prove important for Brown — if Democrats use it to excite more African Americans about going to the polls tomorrow. Brown has been focusing like a laser on Prince George’s voting, but Baltimore remains a under-appreciated linchpin.

Meanwhile, everyone will be waiting for Tuesday’s weather forecast.

Right now, it looks like it will be a perfect fall day — sunny and warm. That’s great news for Brown, not so for Hogan. The lower the Democratic turnout, the better for the Republican given Democrats’ 2-1 registration advantage in Maryland.

Curious Endorsements

Questions posed by The Baltimore Sun about Brown’s “strikingly dishonest” campaign and his “unrepentant mendacity” (i.e., he’s a serial liar) continue to reverberate. Anyone reading the editorial must wonder how in the world the newspaper ended up endorsing such an ethically flawed candidate.

Even more curious was Del. Heather Mizeur’s op-ed column in the newspaper in which she politely excoriated Brown for snubbing her attempts to get him to run a positive campaign in which she would actively engage her supporters on his behalf.

Yet Mizeur, like The Sun, held her nose and told her backers to vote for Brown, not Hogan.

Mizeur might consider this campaign “an epic disaster,” but she’s willing to ignore Brown’s lying and deception because he is more likely to advance her progressive agenda.

Bottom Line

Turnout tomorrow still holds the key.

Brown needs large numbers in his Democratic strongholds, especially among African Americans. He’s still a slight favorite due to his built-in voter registration advantage.

Hogan is counting on a heavier than usual GOP turnout, support from independents and — most important of all — a growing number of moderate Democrats turned off by Brown’s ferocious negativity and his sterile, bubble-wrapped campaign.

Clearly, Hogan’s simplistic economic message (less taxes, less expansive government) has hit a chord with many voters. A win would mark a stunning, surprising turnaround for the state’s underdog GOP.

The election could align Maryland with the Republican trend elsewhere in the nation.

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‘Where’s Martin?’ Not in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Oct. 30, 2014 – It’s a puzzle that would captivate devotees of the “Where’s Waldo?” illustrations. Only in this case, the question is, “Where’s Martin?” (O’Malley, that is, Maryland’s two-term governor).

'Where's Martin? --'Where's Waldo?' illustration

Since late spring, the state’s chief executive has been largely MIA – missing in action. He’s done an early fade-out so that Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown can capture the media limelight.

This serves dual purposes.

It allows Brown to escape from O’Malley’s shadow after eight years and promote himself as a legitimate co-owner of the O’Malley-Brown administration’s accomplishments.

There’s no dueling press conferences or conflicting media events. Uncharacteristically for the governor, he has limited his in-state public appearances and no longer dominates the local news.

National Travel Schedule

At the same time, this has given O’Malley time to work on his next career move, which involves running for national office, either next year or in the future.

Not a week goes by without his travel schedule including jaunts to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or some other state where there are early presidential primaries or Democratic candidates happy to have O’Malley campaign for them.

'Where;s martin?' -- Martin O'Malley in Iowa

Martin O’Malley in Iowa

This past Monday he was tramping through New Hampshire for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen — his fifth visit there.

This may pay off in time for the 2016 Democratic presidential face-off, especially if the presumptive winner, Hillary Clinton, opts not to run.

Otherwise, O’Malley can add to his frequent-flier mileage, develop party contacts, earn the gratitude of Democratic candidates all over the nation, and bide his time until the H. Clinton presidency nears its end in 2020 or 2024.

Flexible Timetable

He’ll still be only 59 in eight years, a prime age for a serious presidential run. By then, he may have gained substantial Washington experience — and national visibility — under the nation’s first female president.

If a Republican wins in 2016, O’Malley’s timetable can be accelerated for a presidential bid in 2020.

All this starts with solid foundation-building this year and next. O’Malley has dispatched paid operatives to key primary states and is engaging in all-out retail politicking at which he excels.

'Where's Martin?' -- O'Malley campaigning

O’Malley campaigning

Yet at home, Maryland seems at times rudderless.

O’Malley is so absent from daily developments that it is hard to remember how he dominated media attention over the past 14 years as mayor of Baltimore and Maryland governor.

Letting Brown take center stage, though, has its drawbacks.

First, Brown seems to have an aversion to O’Malley’s brand of on-the-ground campaigning, the sort of endless meet-and-greet, get-to-know-you politics people adore.

Second, Brown has become Maryland’s “bubble boy” – isolated from the general population in a tightly scripted campaign schedule that avoids unnecessary contact with ordinary folks and the media.

No Personal Connection

Instead of reveling in this opportunity to seize the moment and impress Maryland voters with his political savvy and grasp of issues, Brown has hidden behind a barrage of harsh, inaccurate attack ads and a relentless, unfair pummeling of a “nice-guy” Republican, Larry Hogan Jr.

The lieutenant governor has failed to make a convincing case for the positives of the O’Malley years and has had trouble defending the negatives — especially the botched health exchange rollout that Brown failed to supervise properly.

What’s missing in his campaign is any personal connection between Anthony Brown and voters. That’s most harmful in the Baltimore area, where Brown is pretty much a mystery figure.

O’Malley’s absence from Maryland’s political scene deprives Brown of a valuable asset – especially in Baltimore City, which is a pivotal jurisdiction in the governor’s race.

While O’Malley’s popularity numbers in polls are dropping statewide, he remains a favorite in Baltimore, where the former mayor is fondly remembered.

Baltimore also is Brown’s weak spot. He’s got scant connections there and hasn’t become involved in local issues. He’s not a household name.

Yet Baltimore is such a Democratic monolith that winning big in Charm City is paramount for Brown.

O’Malley could have helped immensely. Why wasn’t he turned turned loose in city neighborhoods with block parties and frenetic double-time door-knocking on Brown’s behalf?

Where’s the Real Anthony?

O’Malley knows how to give campaigns a human dimension; Brown doesn’t. The lieutenant governor is stiff, self-controlled and almost robotic in approaching voters.

The real Anthony Brown isn’t on display.

So Martin O‘Malley’s disappearance from Maryland’s campaign arena could well backfire on Democrats.

With his boss on the campaign sidelines locally, Brown had a golden opportunity to impress state voters.

Yet Brown hasn’t grabbed the brass ring. He seems afraid to reach for it.

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