Tag Archives: election

MD Gov. Larry Hogan Jr. — Yes!

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 5, 2014 — Ripped from Maryland’s political headlines:

Gov.-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

Gov.-elect Larry Hogan Jr.

  • Toiling in the vineyards produces a mighty fine wine: Hogan’s Harvest.
  • The curse of the MD lieutenant governor’s office continues.
  • Honesty remains the best policy.
  • The end does not justify the means.
  • The MD GOP finally has a strong bench in the counties.
  • Retail politics works; campaigning in an isolation booth doesn’t.
  • Maryland finally joins the rest of the nation.
  • It’s the economy, stupid.
  • And also, KISS works (Keep It Simple, Stupid)
  • If Democrats in MD can’t get their base to the polls, it’s all over.
  • Voters are a lot smarter than political prognosticators.

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Election Eve Conclusions in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Nov. 3, 2014 – On the eve of Maryland’s unexpectedly close gubernatorial election, some tentative conclusions can be drawn:

Pluses for Brown

Anthony Brown did quite well in attracting Democrats to the polls during early voting.

Nearly one-third of all ballots cast came from three heavily Democratic jurisdictions – Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County. Each showed a substantial jump in turnout from the June primary.

Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown-May 7 debate

Anthony Brown

Overall, 102,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans. Brown should start with a big lead on Election Day.

Another good sign for Brown: The state’s heaviest voting polling place last week was in Randallstown, the heart of Baltimore County’s growing black community.

More good news for the Democrat: Brown’s running mate, Ken Ulman, did exceedingly well in drawing Democrats to the polls early in Howard County with a 13 percent turnout (the statewide average was 8.3 percent).

Hogan’s Shore Support

Republican Larry Hogan can take comfort in the hefty early voting on the Eastern Shore. That Congressional District cast more votes last week than anywhere else.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Yet Brown must be pleased by the turnout in three of his key Congressional Districts that contain most of the state’s African American population – the 4th (Prince George’s County and Anne Arundel County), the 5th (Prince George’s and Southern Maryland) and the 7th (black and liberal areas of Metro Baltimore).

The jurisdiction with the largest early turnout, Baltimore County, is likely to favor Hogan, but not by the kind of lopsided Brown margins expected in Prince George’s County and Baltimore City.

Brown got mixed signals in traditionally liberal Montgomery County, which had a weak early turnout. Yet this year’s early Montgomery numbers were 30 percent better than four years ago.

Early voting, still a new trend in Maryland, appears to favor Democrats.

Republicans remain leery of additional ballot days. They see it as a Democratic scheme to use the superior organizing  skill of  labor unions to convey more minority, poor and working voters to the polls during those seven extra voting days.

Celebrity Buzz

Bringing Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama to Prince George’s County seems to have generated enough buzz to generate a 9.5 percent turnout among the county’s Democratic voters.

Hogan’s celebrity politician, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, brought the GOP candidate money and media coverage with his multiple appearances. Christie, though, isn’t a big enough draw to help Hogan’s early vote numbers.

First Lady Michelle Obama’s appearance today in Baltimore could prove important for Brown — if Democrats use it to excite more African Americans about going to the polls tomorrow. Brown has been focusing like a laser on Prince George’s voting, but Baltimore remains a under-appreciated linchpin.

Meanwhile, everyone will be waiting for Tuesday’s weather forecast.

Right now, it looks like it will be a perfect fall day — sunny and warm. That’s great news for Brown, not so for Hogan. The lower the Democratic turnout, the better for the Republican given Democrats’ 2-1 registration advantage in Maryland.

Curious Endorsements

Questions posed by The Baltimore Sun about Brown’s “strikingly dishonest” campaign and his “unrepentant mendacity” (i.e., he’s a serial liar) continue to reverberate. Anyone reading the editorial must wonder how in the world the newspaper ended up endorsing such an ethically flawed candidate.

Even more curious was Del. Heather Mizeur’s op-ed column in the newspaper in which she politely excoriated Brown for snubbing her attempts to get him to run a positive campaign in which she would actively engage her supporters on his behalf.

Yet Mizeur, like The Sun, held her nose and told her backers to vote for Brown, not Hogan.

Mizeur might consider this campaign “an epic disaster,” but she’s willing to ignore Brown’s lying and deception because he is more likely to advance her progressive agenda.

Bottom Line

Turnout tomorrow still holds the key.

Brown needs large numbers in his Democratic strongholds, especially among African Americans. He’s still a slight favorite due to his built-in voter registration advantage.

Hogan is counting on a heavier than usual GOP turnout, support from independents and — most important of all — a growing number of moderate Democrats turned off by Brown’s ferocious negativity and his sterile, bubble-wrapped campaign.

Clearly, Hogan’s simplistic economic message (less taxes, less expansive government) has hit a chord with many voters. A win would mark a stunning, surprising turnaround for the state’s underdog GOP.

The election could align Maryland with the Republican trend elsewhere in the nation.

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‘Where’s Martin?’ Not in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Oct. 30, 2014 – It’s a puzzle that would captivate devotees of the “Where’s Waldo?” illustrations. Only in this case, the question is, “Where’s Martin?” (O’Malley, that is, Maryland’s two-term governor).

'Where's Martin? --'Where's Waldo?' illustration

Since late spring, the state’s chief executive has been largely MIA – missing in action. He’s done an early fade-out so that Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown can capture the media limelight.

This serves dual purposes.

It allows Brown to escape from O’Malley’s shadow after eight years and promote himself as a legitimate co-owner of the O’Malley-Brown administration’s accomplishments.

There’s no dueling press conferences or conflicting media events. Uncharacteristically for the governor, he has limited his in-state public appearances and no longer dominates the local news.

National Travel Schedule

At the same time, this has given O’Malley time to work on his next career move, which involves running for national office, either next year or in the future.

Not a week goes by without his travel schedule including jaunts to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or some other state where there are early presidential primaries or Democratic candidates happy to have O’Malley campaign for them.

'Where;s martin?' -- Martin O'Malley in Iowa

Martin O’Malley in Iowa

This past Monday he was tramping through New Hampshire for Sen. Jeanne Shaheen — his fifth visit there.

This may pay off in time for the 2016 Democratic presidential face-off, especially if the presumptive winner, Hillary Clinton, opts not to run.

Otherwise, O’Malley can add to his frequent-flier mileage, develop party contacts, earn the gratitude of Democratic candidates all over the nation, and bide his time until the H. Clinton presidency nears its end in 2020 or 2024.

Flexible Timetable

He’ll still be only 59 in eight years, a prime age for a serious presidential run. By then, he may have gained substantial Washington experience — and national visibility — under the nation’s first female president.

If a Republican wins in 2016, O’Malley’s timetable can be accelerated for a presidential bid in 2020.

All this starts with solid foundation-building this year and next. O’Malley has dispatched paid operatives to key primary states and is engaging in all-out retail politicking at which he excels.

'Where's Martin?' -- O'Malley campaigning

O’Malley campaigning

Yet at home, Maryland seems at times rudderless.

O’Malley is so absent from daily developments that it is hard to remember how he dominated media attention over the past 14 years as mayor of Baltimore and Maryland governor.

Letting Brown take center stage, though, has its drawbacks.

First, Brown seems to have an aversion to O’Malley’s brand of on-the-ground campaigning, the sort of endless meet-and-greet, get-to-know-you politics people adore.

Second, Brown has become Maryland’s “bubble boy” – isolated from the general population in a tightly scripted campaign schedule that avoids unnecessary contact with ordinary folks and the media.

No Personal Connection

Instead of reveling in this opportunity to seize the moment and impress Maryland voters with his political savvy and grasp of issues, Brown has hidden behind a barrage of harsh, inaccurate attack ads and a relentless, unfair pummeling of a “nice-guy” Republican, Larry Hogan Jr.

The lieutenant governor has failed to make a convincing case for the positives of the O’Malley years and has had trouble defending the negatives — especially the botched health exchange rollout that Brown failed to supervise properly.

What’s missing in his campaign is any personal connection between Anthony Brown and voters. That’s most harmful in the Baltimore area, where Brown is pretty much a mystery figure.

O’Malley’s absence from Maryland’s political scene deprives Brown of a valuable asset – especially in Baltimore City, which is a pivotal jurisdiction in the governor’s race.

While O’Malley’s popularity numbers in polls are dropping statewide, he remains a favorite in Baltimore, where the former mayor is fondly remembered.

Baltimore also is Brown’s weak spot. He’s got scant connections there and hasn’t become involved in local issues. He’s not a household name.

Yet Baltimore is such a Democratic monolith that winning big in Charm City is paramount for Brown.

O’Malley could have helped immensely. Why wasn’t he turned turned loose in city neighborhoods with block parties and frenetic double-time door-knocking on Brown’s behalf?

Where’s the Real Anthony?

O’Malley knows how to give campaigns a human dimension; Brown doesn’t. The lieutenant governor is stiff, self-controlled and almost robotic in approaching voters.

The real Anthony Brown isn’t on display.

So Martin O‘Malley’s disappearance from Maryland’s campaign arena could well backfire on Democrats.

With his boss on the campaign sidelines locally, Brown had a golden opportunity to impress state voters.

Yet Brown hasn’t grabbed the brass ring. He seems afraid to reach for it.

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The Difference-Maker: Early Voting

By Barry Rascovar

Oct. 22, 2014–If Anthony Brown is going to stem the unexpected surge of Larry Hogan Jr.’s gubernatorial campaign he’s got to start pulling out all the stops on Thursday.

That’s when early voting begins in Maryland for the Nov. 4 general election. Running up a big lead by getting his supporters to the polls over the next week is pivotal for Democrat Brown.

Early Voting poster

Here’s why.

In the June primary, Democratic early voters outpaced Republicans by better than 3-1.

If Brown can repeat that now, he’d start on Nov. 4 with a 71,000-vote lead.

Add in absentee ballots (based on the primary election numbers) and the Democratic lead over Republicans would exceed 80,000.

It could be the difference-maker.

Brown has generated scant excitement among Democrats.

This “enthusiasm gap” could translate into low turnout on Election Day, particularly in the Democrats’ Big Three – Baltimore City, Prince George’s County and Montgomery County, which contain 854,000 Democrats versus just 175,000 Republicans.

Anthony Brown

Anthony Brown

Brown can overcome that, though, with an full-court press, starting Thursday, to ensure that his campaign workers take full advantage of early voting, which ends Oct. 30. They need to contact supporters, provide rides to the polls and get others to cast absentee ballots.

Baltimore City should be ground zero for Brown.

Republicans are few and far between in Charm City (30,000 out of 325,000 registered voters). That’s why running up a lopsided early-voting total in Baltimore could put Brown in the driver’s seat.

Giving citizens the luxury of additional balloting days is still new to Maryland. It takes getting used to, especially for political organizations.

Early Turnout Drive

Brown and his allies have been preparing their get-out-the-early-vote drive for months. Groups like the state teachers union, organized labor and environmentalists are old hands at identifying supporters and making sure they cast a vote.

They will need to do a first-rate job for Brown to win.

A heavy early vote tally can offset a slim Nov. 4 turnout in the city and other Brown strongholds. That’s what happened in the primary.

Without early voting, the city’s 23 percent June turnout would have shrunk to 18 percent. Prince George’s County’s 19 percent turnout would have dropped to 14 percent. Montgomery’s 17.5 percent primary turnout would have slipped to 14.6 percent.

Brown’s Campaign

This race shouldn’t be close, not in overwhelmingly Democratic Maryland. Brown has no one to blame but himself.

He has run a terrible campaign.

  • He’s let paid consultants apply a national campaign template (go harshly negative) that is ill-suited to Maryland.
  • He’s been the “bubble boy” — cordoned off from the media and from ordinary voters.
  • Brown speaks through campaign mouthpieces who mimic the near-hysterical “Hogan is dangerous” ads.
  • He’s almost never heard speaking in his commercials.
  • He’s becoming a caricature of the “empty suit candidate” — afraid to open his mouth for fear of saying something that might cost him the election.

Yet with all these missteps, Anthony Brown could win because of Maryland voter loyalty to the Democratic Party.

Given the 2-1 dominance state Democrats have in registered voters (2,051,300 party loyalists versus 950,000 Republicans), there’s little more Hogan can do to turn the tide.

Instead, the election is in Brown’s hands.

Early Voting

If he produces a heavy early vote and a well-organized Democratic turnout Nov. 4, the lieutenant governor ought to win.

But if turnout in Brown’s core areas proves disappointing, Maryland’s race for governor could be a nail-biter.

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Lying to MD Voters

By Barry Rascovar

Oct. 13, 2014 — Whoever is elected Maryland governor on Nov. 4 will have some s’plain’ to do to the state’s citizens.

Why have you been lying to us?

Why did you make wild allegations out of whole cloth?

Why did you deceive us?

Both Democrat Anthony Brown and Republican Larry Hogan Jr. are guilty as charged, though Brown is by far the worse offender.

Democratic candidate Anthony Brown

Democratic Candidate Anthony Brown

He not only manufactured false charges against Hogan on abortion, gun control and school construction, his campaign has kept screaming those invalid accusations in a propaganda blitz dominated by “Big Lie” tactics.

Debate Deception

Brown continued his campaign of falsehoods at the first TV debate last week.

Out of the blue he accused Hogan of pledging to cut $450 million from school construction funds. That is patently false. Hogan never said any such thing.

Hogan had issued an error-filled list of “examples,” culled from audit reports, of “waste, fraud and abuse” in state government, including school construction, to show how cost-savings could be achieved.

Republican Candidate Larry Hogan Jr.

Republican Candidate Larry Hogan Jr.

Brown’s advisers turned that into “he’s against education” allegations. Then Brown repeated the bogus charge in the debate. Talk about a leap of logic. . .

The Maryland Democratic Party’s campaign’s motto seems to be “smear Hogan. . . and then smear him again.”

Inflammatory Environment

Even more shameful: Brown got both the state teachers’ union and House Speaker Mike Busch to condemn a budget-cut promise by Hogan that he never made.

Busch and the union know better. They are contributing to a dangerous, inflammatory campaign environment in which truth is the casualty.

Instead of setting a positive tone in the debate and detailing his positions, Brown stuck to his advisers’ script: go negative, denounce Hogan, keep him on the defensive — even if the charges aren’t true.

What an appalling way to win an election.

‘Big Lie’ Precedent

It’s the worst “Big Lie” campaign in Maryland since John Marshall Butler defeated longtime Sen. Millard Tydings in 1950 — during the height of the Red Scare era — by distributing a doctored, composite photo showing Tydings with the leader of the American Communist Party.

Fake photo Tydings-Browder

Fake Photo of Sen. Millard Tydings with Community Party Chief Earl Browder

This end-justifies-the-means mentality is deeply offensive in a democratic arena. It may work on the battlefield, but Army Colonel Brown knows it is totally inappropriate in an American political campaign.

Not that Hogan’s antics deserve a silver star.

His much-ballyhooed attack on the Democratic administration’s “40 tax increases” is wildly inflated. His $1.75 billion listing of “waste, fraud and abuse” is irresponsibly inaccurate and filled with stunning errors. His misleading attacks on the “rain tax” perpetuate a Republican fiction. His data to prove Maryland’s economic decline badly overstates reality.

Finger-Pointing

What’s lacking from both candidates is a compelling, detailed argument for why they should be governor. Instead, we get finger-pointing and shrill, over-the-top charges of extremism.

This campaign has been about extremism — extreme name-calling. And it’s worth reiterating that Brown is doing far more than Hogan to put this campaign in Maryland’s Political Hall of Shame.

Recently, Brown issued his own cost-cutting, “government efficiency” program, making sure it was released on a football Sunday, guaranteeing that few paid attention.

Flight of Fantasy

It’s a disgraceful document, nearly as bad as Hogan’s much-discredited budget-cutting plan.

It assumes future savings that may never materialize. It makes giant leaps of faith that aren’t supported by any credible documentation.

It incorrectly counts savings by local governments as state budget savings. It makes wild assumptions that employee suggestions will save tens of millions of dollars each year. It attributes huge savings to decriminalizing marijuana — a flight of fantasy lacking in hard evidence.

Given all the fraudulent assertions by each candidate, neither deserves to move into the governor’s mansion.

But that’s not an option for voters.

We’re left picking between the lesser of two evils. What a sad commentary on the current state of Maryland politics.

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Barry Rascovar’s commentaries can be found at www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.

A Debatable Debate in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Oct. 8, 2014 — This is the best we’ve got?

It was a painfully thin performance by both Democrat Anthony Brown and Republican Larry Hogan Jr. in Maryland’s first gubernatorial debate of the month Tuesday night.

They followed their handlers’ terribly misguided advice to trash one another. They went out of their way to go negative and too often repeated their trite attack lines and glaringly erroneous accusations.

The result: Neither candidate presented a compelling argument for becoming governor.

“Vote for Me”

Instead, they all but proclaimed to voters: “If you don’t like what the other guy stands, then vote for me.” What a horrible way to waste an hour of valuable debate time on statewide TV.

Brown clearly bested Hogan on the environmental question of the night.

He gave a detailed and cogent explanation of efforts to protect and clean up the Chesapeake Bay.

Hogan’s response — delaying bay cleanup efforts while he sues Pennsylvania and New York to force upstream sediment removal in the Susquehanna River — was an evasive and weak answer to the question.

Republican Larry Hogan Jr. - Debate in MD

Republican Larry Hogan Jr.

Hogan had by far the better response on crime.

He zeroed in on Maryland’s heroin epidemic, summarized the crisis and called for a summit to find answers.

Brown rattled off past successes against crime, which rang hollow given the state’s continuing struggle to stem the violence.

The saddest part of the evening may have been each candidate’s exaggerations to the  point of fabrication.

Each used budget-saving ideas and fiscal numbers based mainly on hot air.

As for the biggest mistake of the evening, that belongs to Anthony Brown’s. “There will be no new taxes under the Brown-Ulman administration,” he said.

Brown will rue the day he made that campaign promise.

There’s no way he can govern eight years without increasing the state’s revenue base.

It was another of what Hogan correctly called Brown’s “phony promises” that ignore Maryland’s $405 million deficit, recent dips in revenue collections and the state’s ballooning expenses over the next four or five years.

Moving the Economy

Both candidates overpromised when it came to reviving Maryland’s economy.

No governor has the ability to do that, though a governor can nudge things in the right direction long-term with wise tax reforms.

Brown’s closing remarks were pathetically weak (the “American dream” shtick). Hogan’s closing was far superior in making the case for change.

Still, the bottom line is that Brown didn’t mess up in Debate No. 1.

As the Democratic candidate, he’s got a built-in advantage in deeply blue Maryland.

The race remains his to lose.

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Barry Rascovar has been reporting on Maryland politics for over 40 years. His columns can be found at www.politicalmaryland.com.

Why Brown Could Lose in MD

By Barry Rascovar

Oct. 6, 2014 — Is Democratic gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown about to blow a “sure thing” in Maryland?

Anthony Brown

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown

On the eve of the first governor’s debate, is the lieutenant governor “pulling a Townsend” similar to Kathleen Kennedy Townsend’s implosion in the 2002 governor’s race that gift-wrapped the election for Republican underdog Bob Ehrlich?

To date, the answer is “yes.”

The Brown campaign is badly off-track.

In a Cocoon

Its professional staff has hermetically sealed their candidate in a tight cocoon, isolating him from the media and all voters except the most loyal Democratic groups.

They’ve picked the wrong issues to run on. Abortion rights and gun control laws are settled matters in Maryland. Even Republican gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan Jr. agrees on that.

The “pocketbook issues” will decide this election — or as advisers to Bill Clinton put it in the 1990s, “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Big Mistake

According to Patrick Gonzales’ latest poll, the most pressing matters for voters — by far — are the economy and taxes. These are precisely the themes heavily promoted by Hogan and ignored by Brown.

That’s a huge mistake, a giant failure to understand what’s troubling Marylanders.

Brown hired national campaign specialists when he should have turned to local pros. While abortion and gun control still might be dominant issues in Kansas or Georgia, they aren’t in Maryland. It doesn’t take a genius to figure that out.

Meanwhile, Brown’s handlers have isolated him from the public at large.

Hiding Brown

While Hogan is happy to talk with reporters, Brown runs from them. He’s shielded from the media by his aides.

His handlers even hide Brown from the public in the campaign’s media messages.

And, oh, those dreadful commercials. Harsh. Negative. Hostile. Incendiary. The sky is falling if you vote for Hogan!

It’s a gigantic turn-off for voters. This is an intelligent electorate. These folks aren’t fooled by  misguided campaign propaganda.

Hogan’s Message

Larry Hogan isn’t “dangerous” and he isn’t “radical.” He comes across as a likeable, engaging and gregarious fellow with a simple message — let’s get a handle on excessive government spending and then let’s see if we can lower taxes.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan

Compare that with the Brown campaign’s near-hysterical messages on abortion and gun laws.

During the 2002 campaign, then Lt. Gov. Townsend seemed to get in trouble every time she opened her mouth. Apparently, Brown’s handlers are worried he’d do the same thing if given a chance.

So they’ve sealed him off from the outside world — except for appearances before adoring Democratic crowds where he delivers a stock speech or reads from a prepared text.

With Brown, there’s no sense of humanity, no sense he’s a flesh-and-blood candidate with emotions and feelings. He comes across as stiff, robotic, programmed and unable to think on his feet or engage voters in ordinary conversations.

Mystery Man

With Brown, there’s no innate connection with voters, particularly in the all-important Baltimore region.

Despite serving eight years as lieutenant governor, Brown remains a mystery man to Metro Baltimore residents. He’s the invisible candidate — never seen, never heard from and never known.

Combine that with his lack of a specific program that voters can grasp for fixing the state’s economy and averting future tax increases and you can see why Hogan is running close to Brown in the Gonzales poll. (Brown’s government efficiency proposal announced Sunday contains more empty promises: pie-in-the-sky projected savings, sweeping assumptions and few realistic numbers.)

If Brown is going to re-gain the initiative, he needs to do more than take wild, roundhouse swings at Hogan that aren’t coming close to hitting their target.

Brown needs to deliver positive reasons why he’s the best candidate for governor. So far, he’s been a silent campaigner in TV ads, letting others do the talking for him.

That’s not good enough.

Deeply Democratic

By all measures, Brown ought to win easily in November. Maryland is a deeply Democratic state.

But if he continues to come across as arrogant, aloof and unwilling to speak directly to ordinary voters and to the media, Anthony Brown could, indeed, “pull a Townsend.”

He might end up handing the governor’s mansion to Hogan.

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Barry Rascovar’s blog is www.politicalmaryland.com. He can be reached at brascovar@hotmail.com.

Franchot’s Bad News for Brown

By Barry Rascovar

Sept. 29, 2014– OUCH! That’s the sound coming from Anthony Brown’s campaign headquarters after hearing of a $405 million drop in expected state revenue over the next 21 months.

This is bad news for the lieutenant governor’s gubernatorial drive.

The shrinking revenue forecast not only buoys Republican Larry Hogan’s campaign, it powerfully reinforces Hogan’s central theme: Maryland’s budget is out of kilter and in need of serious overhaul.

Republican Larry Hogan Jr.

Republican Larry Hogan Jr.

Hogan received an unexpected boost last week from Democratic Comptroller Peter Franchot’s sharp critique of the state’s liberal Democratic spending policies.

At Wednesday’s Board of Revenue Estimates meeting, Franchot took to task the “What, me worry?” attitude being taken these days by Gov. Martin O’Malley and Brown when it comes to Maryland’s continuing revenue shortfalls.

Indeed, Franchot’s comments could be grist for future Hogan ads.

Ignoring Bad News

For example, the state comptroller took umbrage at the O’Malley-Brown administration’s Scarlett O’Hara approach (“tomorrow is another day”) toward bad economic news:

” . . . we need to accept that sluggish growth and challenging economic conditions have become our new normal. It feels like we sit at these meetings every quarter, hopeful and determined that ‘next year will be the year’ when the recovery takes hold and is felt broadly throughout the economy. Yet, another year has passed, and ordinary families and small businesses haven’t even recovered to where they were before the financial collapse. . . We need to recognize that hope is not an economic strategy.”

That’s a damning criticism aimed squarely at the governor and lieutenant governor.

Comptroller Peter Franchot

Comptroller Peter Franchot

Franchot laid out a few of the bleak economic numbers:

“Maryland’s 6.4 percent unemployment rate is higher than the national rate of 6.1 percent – something we’ve only experienced twice in the past three and a half decades. . . . In terms of wages – the oxygen working families need to survive – Maryland’s average wage growth was just 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014. . .

“Essentially, workers perceive that their take-home pay is headed in the wrong direction and the purchasing power for Maryland families is, in reality, diminishing.”

This is exactly what Hogan has been saying.

 Maryland’s economy, Franchot notes, “didn’t grow at all last year – with a 0 percent GDP growth for 2013.”

That is an ominous indicator which the O’Malley-Brown team is blissfully ignoring. Why? Because it is politically unpalatable.

Hesitating to Act

Here’s the hard truth, according to Franchot:

“We simply can’t assume that we’re around the corner from returning to the way it was, and back to the decisions we could afford to make in Maryland as a result.”

Yet no one is rushing to close this new revenue gap in the state’s budget calculations and tighten up on state spending.

Brown doesn’t want to announce unpopular cutbacks during an election campaign; O’Malley would rather delay nasty decisions until he leaves office.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown

Democratic Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown

Brown is ignoring the reality that Maryland could face difficult budget years ahead that won’t allow for the raft of social programs he’s promising voters.

Franchot sagely put it this way:

“As state policymakers, we need to be smart in how we spend taxpayer dollars, recognizing that to invest in the things we need, we have to forego many of the things we simply want. . . “

This is what Larry Hogan has been preaching on the campaign trail, albeit in vague, superficial terms.

It is folly to assume, as Brown does, that there will be hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars available for his expensive campaign proposals. That list starts with a statewide pre-kindergarten program and tax breaks for veterans.

Neither may be affordable in the current economy.

Voters and Economics

But are voters listening? Do they understand that what Brown is promising them isn’t deliverable under the present sluggish economy Maryland confronts?

Do they understand that Maryland could face difficult times unless it reins in its borrowing and its overspending?

The public’s grasp of American economics isn’t very deep. Numbers tends to make people’s eyes glaze over. That’s what Brown is counting on.

Meanwhile, the Scarlett O’Hara approach to managing Maryland’s chronic structural deficit continues. Wishing that tomorrow will bring us blue skies and strong economic growth isn’t enough.

Franchot is right. Hope is not a viable economic strategy.

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Brown Goes Negative Big-Time

By Barry Rascovar

Sept.  22, 2014 — So much for a positive, uplifting campaign for Maryland governor. Both candidates already are down in the gutter hurling mud balls at each other.

Anthony Brown is by far the worse offender, which is curious.

Larry Hogan Jr. (left) and Anthony Brown

Larry Hogan Jr. (left) and Anthony Brown

The Democratic nominee and current lieutenant governor should be enjoying the view from the top of the campaign mountain.

He’s got demographics and voter registration numbers heavily in his favor. He’s got a unified Democratic Party behind him. He’s got — or soon will have — money galore to spend on a lavish media campaign.

Brown’s Curious Tactics

In heavily Democratic Maryland, why should this candidate go negative?

Is it insecurity?

Has Brown been persuaded by campaign operatives to launch “scorched earth” attacks?

Or is the race a lot closer than the general perception?

Whatever the reason, it isn’t pretty. It reflects poorly on Brown. Is this the way he intends to govern?

His opponent, Republican Larry Hogan Jr., isn’t helping matters with his ad excoriating Brown for his weak leadership and incompetence during the botched health exchange rollout.

Larry Hogan Jr.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan Jr.

Last Thursday, he held a press conference, refuted Brown’s bombastic charges and called the lieutenant governor “a liar.”

Brown’s napalm bombs are landing but they are way off-target. They amount to a smear campaign combining half-truths and flat-out untruths.

Brown and his cohorts at the Democratic Governors Association want voters to believe Hogan has a “dangerous Republican agenda” and a “dangerous conservative ideology” that will devastate women’s abortion rights and abolish Maryland’s gun laws.

Let’s scare ’em into voting for Brown!

Moderate Conservative

None of this is true.

Hogan isn’t a wild-eyed Tea Party radical. He stands to the left of former Gov. Bob Ehrlich on his approach toward Democratic Annapolis.

Yes, he’s conservative, but his statements on social issues have been cautious and moderate.

Abortions? Hogan, a devout Catholic, opposes them. But he stated again Thursday he will not do anything as governor to change the status quo.

Gun laws? Same thing. Hogan doesn’t like the restrictions but he’s not foolish enough to believe he could do anything to change what Democrats and voters approved to rein in illicit gun use.

Dangerous agenda? No, but it is very much a platform crafted by a businessman who believes smaller government works best, that Democrats have been too quick to raise taxes and that Maryland’s anti-business reputation has cost the state tens of thousands of jobs.

Brown repeatedly asserts Hogan wants to give $300 million in tax breaks to wealthy corporations. It’s a little more complicated than that.

Yes, Hogan eventually wants to bring down the state’s high corporate tax rate, which is one reason Virginia has an easy time gaining new businesses at Maryland’s expense.

Hogan’s Priority

But Hogan also has made it clear his top priority is ratcheting down government spending, and then see if certain taxes can be reduced.

Is Hogan against universal pre-kindergarten? Again, it’s not so simple. Hogan’s not anti-education as Brown’s ads intimate.

He just thinks Brown’s plan is unaffordable given Maryland’s continuing structural deficit and uncertain revenue outlook.

That’s not wild-eyed or radical. It even makes sense.

The last thing Maryland needs next year is a raft of new crusades and tax hikes. The state’s and the nation’s high unemployment level and high poverty rate should spur caution, not activist spending programs.

Anthony Brown

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Anthony Brown

Brown’s irresponsible ads pounding away at Hogan’s “$300 million in tax breaks” for rich corporate owners mirrors what Brown pulled on Attorney General Doug Gansler in the Democratic primary.

Brown’s opposition to any reduction in Maryland’s corporate tax rate could have long-term, negative consequences. It sends the wrong signal about the state’s business climate.

Does this mean Governor Brown will say “no” to helping corporations even if this would bring huge numbers of jobs to Maryland?

Nevada just agreed to give Tesla Motors $1.3 billion in long-term incentives to build the world’s largest and most advanced electric-auto battery plant there — a $5 billion project resulting in 6,500 full-time jobs.

Such a deal apparently won’t happen in Maryland under Governor Brown. His campaign’s rhetoric is narrowing his economic development options.

Brown’s smear tactics leave a rank odor. It will linger. It’s a self-inflicted wound that may become a huge — and unnecessary — campaign liability.

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Diversion Tactic in MD Governor’s Race

By Barry Rascovar

Sept. 10, 2014 — When you are caught with your thumb in the cherry pie, what do you say?

“Ma, look what Mikey’s doing! He’s up to no good.”

That diversionary tactic doesn’t work on moms, and Anthony Brown’s finger-pointing tactic doesn’t work, either.

Hogan's disputed Windsport

Hogan’s disputed Windsport

Brown may have a serious campaign fund-raising violation to explain to the state elections board.

So what does he say?

He accuses his Republican foe, Larry Hogan Jr., of low-balling his monthly rental fee for a recreation vehicle decked out in campaign logos.

Why, Hogan should be paying a lot more than $683.77 a month to fully reflect the cost of operating this mobile campaign headquarters, Brown’s operatives complain.

What a bunch of malarkey.

What Is Reasonable?

A state elections official has already said covering the full monthly payments on Hogan’s bus — which Hogan owns and is renting to the campaign — qualifies as a “reasonable” standard.

What it costs to fill up this gas-guzzling Windsport daily and oil, grease and repair the recreation vehicle for heavy-duty operation through Nov. 4 isn’t part of the rental agreement. That’s something the Hogan campaign must cover anyway.

So in effect, Hogan’s operatives are already paying “fair market value.”

Brown’s ploy is a canard, a decoy designed to shift media focus from the serious complaint Hogan lodged against the Democrat — coordinating fund-raising efforts of his campaign with that of a labor-supported, independent Super-PAC (Political Action Committee).

That’s illegal, according to the Supreme Court. The Maryland elections board already has said campaigns cannot share with independent Super-PACS “campaign material, strategy or information.”

Coordinating Efforts

The problem for Brown is that one of his top chief fund-raisers, Colleen Martin-Lauer, is also the fund-raising coordinator for the supposedly independent labor Super-PAC that is designed to boost Brown. Hogan’s folks maintain it is “simply impossible” for Martin-Lauer and a second joint fund-raiser not to coordinate their solicitation efforts.

Brown did the same thing (overlapping fund-raisers) in the primary election and got away with it. But what if he runs afoul of the Supreme Court’s difficult-to-enforce edict? It could impair his ability to raise as much money as he had hoped.

Millions could be at stake in that complaint. Thousands could be at stake in Brown’s penny-ante subterfuge against Hogan.

It is just another sign of the insipid tactics being employed in this campaign, especially by Brown’s team, which has not hesitated to smear Hogan with blatantly false accusations.

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